WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

Sat 09:21 AM Update — The built-in model cloud cover parameter has only 50% cloudiness. But the GFS and NAM-NEST show low level moisture (below 10,000 ft) near 90%. So it appears that we may have less sun today than originally forecast. Still expect brights spots around 1 PM, but the easterly flow may lock in low level clouds. A lower than usual confidence forecast.

from last night…

The weak frontal boundary that gave some areas wild weather this evening will remain in the area on Saturday.  An easterly flow will keep things on the relatively cool side. Lingering moisture and upper air instability may cause widely scattered showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tonight’s models just becoming available are underplaying the showers on Saturday but have a mix of sunshine and clouds.

Saturday—

  • Cloudy in the morning, becoming a mix of sun and clouds towards noontime and that mix continues into the afternoon.
  • High temp 82.9º sd 2.1º  Somewhat humid.  Dew points near 68º
  • Winds calm or light from the East.
  • Chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.  Impossible to say where they will form.

High pressure builds in for Sunday.

Sunday—

  • Cloudiness very early, becoming sunny.
  • High temp 87.9º sd 2.8º (high spread). Less humid.  Dew points near 66º
  • Winds SW light with some gusts to 15 in the afternoon.

SOMETIMES THE WEATHER MODELS DO REALLY WELL

This morning’s HRESW-ARW2 did remarkably well at predicting the thunderstorms that are just going to affect our area this evening.

Current Radar at 5:29 PM—

Radar image courtesy of https://weathertap.com

HIRESW-ARWMEM2 model from this morning, showing the same split maxima in precip—

HIRESW ARW-MEM2 from this morning

The HIRESW was the only model from this morning that really got this right.   It’s showing 2-3 inches of rain tonight in some areas.  Some models have the rain falling apart, others don’t.   We’ll find out.

More on the weekend forecast later.