The heaviest rain is falling in the areas of the highest PWAT, as posted last night. Other areas have scattered showers.
Radar image 9:53 AM Courtesy of weathertap.com (Click on image for a larger view.)
The latest model blend (NBM) has the highest probability of rain today just to the south of Philadelphia, but all areas have elevated chances —
NBM 1 hour precip probability at 2 PM today (Click on image for a larger view.)
Note that these are 1-hour probabilities; anything greater than 25% is meaningful.
Still expecting some partial clearing and breaks in the overcast during the 2-5 PM time frame. However any breaks/sun may initiate thunderstorm development due to a highly unstable atmosphere.
Fri 11:00 PM Update — Tonight’s models suggest the rain will be more showery in nature on Saturday— Breaks in the rain interrupted by some heavy rain periods. Winds look a bit more gusty as well. Some clearing late afternoon will be interrupted by scattered thunderstorms late afternoon and during the evening. Some areas will receive much more rain than others. Not a uniform continuous rain event. The HIRESW shows some of that extreme tropical moisture makes it into Philadephia, so localized heavy rain possible. The forecast below remains mostly intact.
The moisture and energy remnants of Hurricane Laura will move into our area on Saturday. The low pressure system that was Laura will merge with a large non-tropical low pressure system and associated cold front on Saturday into Saturday night.
The moisture maximum, as reflected in the precipitable water parameter, or “PWAT” maximum, will move just to our south, as previously forecast —
GFS PWAT forecast for 2 PM Saturday afternoon (Click on image for a larger view.)
The energy associated with both Laura, the non-tropical low, and the cold front will move through in separate batches. Showers and rain will move through during the overnight hours.There may be a break in the action Saturday morning, but rain returns around noon and continues though the mid afternoon. Total rain about 1 inch, locally higher.
GFS (pre-release version) 6 hour rain accumulation at 2 PM Saturday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The GFS (new pre-release version) has rain ending around 5PM with even some sun possible later Saturday afternoon. The HIRESW has similar forecast, but has additional showers and clouds after 8 PM with the actual cold front passage.
