WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

[su_note note_color=”#defcdc”]Sun AM Update: Rain and showers linger and end 1-2 PM. Clouds hang in until clearing about 3-4:30 PM Sunday, earlier south and west. [/su_note]

[su_note note_color=”#defcdc”]Sat AM Update:  Rain starts Saturday evening about 7PM.

This morning’s models have the showers lasting until 12-1 PM Sunday. Some sun possible 2-4 PM Sunday. [/su_note]

Fast moving systems will affect our weather over the coming weekend.

High pressure builds in for early Saturday, with mostly sunny skies in the morning that will be followed by increasing cloudiness late morning and early afternoon as low pressure approaches from the southwest.  High 48.   The daytime hours will be dry.

Tonight’s models are in reasonably good agreement that rain moves in between 5 and 7 PM Saturday evening.

Moderate rain expected Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Light showers may linger through the morning hours Sunday as an upper air disturbance behind the main surface low passes through.

It’s expected that skies clear during Sunday afternoon, but there are differences in the models with the timing of the clearing.  High 49.  It will be windy.

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

[su_note note_color=”#defcdc”]Fri AM Update: Last night’s GFS and NAM show the possibility that rain lingers into early Sunday afternoon, rather than being over by Sunday morning. I’ll update this evening.[/su_note]

Fast moving systems will affect our weather over the coming weekend.

High pressure builds in for early Saturday, after a cold front moves through with showers mid day Friday.

Low pressure approaches from the southwest on Saturday. Some sun through high clouds Saturday morning will be followed by increasing cloudiness late morning and during the afternoon.  High 49. Most of the daytime hours will be dry.   The models are in reasonably good agreement that rain moves in between 4 and 7 PM.

Moderate rain expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. Light showers may linger after daybreak Sunday, with the low pressure system moving rapidly away, but expanding and intensifying as it departs.  It’s expected that skies clear during Sunday afternoon. High 51.

[su_note note_color=”#bceaed”]Outlook for Thanksgiving: The models have been inconsistent in the long range. A large storm expected for Wednesday before Thanksgiving seems to have disappeared from the model forecast. The models currently show a storm for Sunday after Thanksgiving, but I would not be surprised if that changes. One thing that has been consistent is the appearance of very cold weather for the first week of December. [/su_note]

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

[su_note note_color=”#defcdc”]Saturday AM Update: This morning’s models have fallen into line with the Sunday forecast from yesterday’s GFS — most of the rain remains off the coast on Sunday. Philadelphia will be cloudy, windy and chilly. There’s a chance of very light sprinkles, but mostly dry for the Eagles game late afternoon.[/su_note]

High pressure builds into our area on Saturday, bringing cold and mostly sunny skies. High temperatures on Saturday will be unseasonably cold with a high of 41.

For Sunday, the main models are still not in full agreement about the westward extent of precipitation Sunday afternoon. That said, the trend is for the precipitation to stay east of Philadelphia until very late afternoon or evening. So the Eagles game should be dry if the global models are correct.  It will be, cloudy, windy and chilly, with highs near 44.

GFS hourly model Simulated Radar Forecast for 2 PM Sunday

The NAM, CMC and SREF have significant rain moving in Sunday evening and night, while the GFS and ECMWF keep much of the rain east and along the coast.  I’ll be updating over the weekend to fine tune this forecast.

NAM Nest high resolution Simulated Radar Sunday 3 pm forecast