WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

Fri 7 AM Update: Last night’s NAM has joined the statical models in their forecast for showers /rain on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Saturday’s weather looks good, Sunday’s is uncertain.

High pressure builds into our area on Saturday, bringing cold and mostly sunny skies. High temperatures on Saturday will be unseasonably cold with a high around 41.

For Sunday, the same high pressure system is thought by the deterministic models to block the northeast movement of a coastal low from bringing rain to our area on Sunday. So the GFS and NAM keep us dry on Sunday.

Unfortunately, the statistical ensemble models, especially the short range model (SREF)  and more recently the GFS based GEFS, have been showing a westward track and a chance of light showers/rain moving in during Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night.

SREF Model precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon 4:30 PM

So there’s significant uncertainty with Sunday’s weather forecast.

I’ve been watching the trends and I think the ensemble forecasts with a chance of showers during Sunday afternoon is a strong possibility.   I’ll update Friday evening, when things should come into better focus.