Hurricane Dorian continues to follow the track predicted by the greatest consensus of models.
Here’s the current COAMPS-TC forecast track, which like many other models, has the storm brushing the South Carolina and North Carolina shores—
COAMPS-TC forecast from Wednesday morning
Hurricane Dorian will affect our area at a distance of Friday. Here is the latest SREF (Short -Range Ensemble Forecast) for Friday afternoon.
A chance of light showers at the Jersey Shore, windy conditions for Friday. (The GFS and NAM keep the shore dry.) Winds 20-25 mph with some higher gusts.
Cloudy conditions expected even into the Philadelphia area.
The experimental US Navy COAMPS-TS did a great job at predicting the movement of Hurricane Dorian. It looks like the Navy is tracking several other tropical storms/disturbances and they haven’t released an update on Dorian since early Monday morning.
(I can only guess that their experimental modeling work needs to share computer resources with modeling of other tropical storms.)
Nonetheless, this is the latest COAMPS-TS track available, which is similar to previous predictions with this model. The storm is not expected to directly hit the Florida coast. It’s current predicted track is remarkably similar to that posted this past Friday.The vast majority of the other major models have similar tracks for Dorian, as of Monday afternoon.
A chance of light showers at the Jersey Shore, windy conditions for Friday. (The GFS and NAM keep the shore dry.) Winds 20-25 mph with some higher gusts.