Monthly Archives: May 2019

Weather Updates

SUNDAY WEATHER UPDATE

1 Comment

A weak warm front moved through before daybreak. Dew points have already started to climb and winds have shifted to the south.

The general consensus is a mix of sun and some clouds at times today.  High temperatures somewhat lower than predicted by the GFS (87)- most models are in the 82-83 range and the NBM consensus comes in with a similar range.  The statistical EKDMOS comes in at 83-85.

A line of thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon/evening mostly in the Pottstown/Reading Allentown areas to our west. These storms will intensify and train in the area.  It’s unclear how far east these will move. Some models have the storms approaching Philadelphia about 8-9 PM but diminish in intensity significantly.  Some models keep the storms to our west.   NJ may not see much of anything tonight from these storms.

 

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Sat 8 AM Update: Last night’s models have additional changes for Sunday. For Sunday, some clouds in the morning with a chance of a widely scattered shower very early, then hazy sunshine. High 85-86. There’s a chance of a widely scattered thunderstorm late afternoon, especially west of Philadelphia. Thunderstorms move through Sunday evening. [/su_note]

The forecast has changed a bit more for Sunday since I posted the outlook yesterday. More about that in a moment.

The cold front moved through this evening (Fri) accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.  The high resolution models (WRF- and the NAM NEST) did well in predicting these.

For Saturday, high pressure builds in giving us a delightful day of sunny skies, low humidity and temperatures 76-78 degrees.

A warm front moves through before daybreak on Sunday.  As mentioned, yesterday’s GFS and NAM makes it a dry front passage, but today’s High Resolution models show light scattered showers before daybreak on Sunday.  Winds shift to the south and dewpoints and temperatures increase on Sunday.

The highly advertised extreme summer-like high near 90 doesn’t seem to be in the forecast right now. The NBM and EKDMOS have backed away from those temperatures.  A mix of sun and some clouds for much of the day Sunday.  High temperatures 82-84. Dew points not as high as previously predicted either.

A cold front moves through Sunday night with showers and thunderstorms moving through.

Philadelphia Weather Outlook

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Fri 8 am. Last night’s models have increased the chance of thundershowers early this evening and have decreased the high temperatures expected for Sunday into the low 80s.[/su_note]

The forecast for the weekend, especially Sunday, has been anything but consistent and similar to last week, I’m glad I waited until today to take a stab at the weekend outlook.

A cold front will move through Friday late afternoon/evening. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible with the frontal passage.

High pressure will build in for Saturday.  Saturday looks to be a beautiful day with high temperatures near 76.

The front that moved through Friday moves back as a warm front before daybreak Sunday. Several times during the week, it appeared that showers would be likely during the morning Sunday.

However, the latest models have the wind shift occurring without any showers.

Sunday is forecast to be fairly hot, with the NAM forecasting 90 degrees and the GFS and NBM 86.  The EKDMOS has a temperature range of 88-91.  Dew points move to the mid-60s and possibly approach the uncomfortable 70 degree range by Sunday evening. Sunday will feature a mix of clouds and hazy sunshine.

The FV3-GFS shows some thundershowers late afternoon Sunday; the NAM doesn’t at this time.