Monthly Archives: February 2019

Philadelphia Weather Outlook

Weather Outlook

The vortex has returned to the polar region where it belongs.  This week has  a January thaw-like feel – a warming trend that typically occurs during the third or fourth week in January.  We’ll have temperatures approaching 60 for Tuesday and possibly higher temperatures on Friday before a cold front moves through later Friday.  Rain late Wednesday through Thursday and possibly into Friday before the frontal boundary passes.

Colder temperatures return for the weekend.  Still no snow in sight although the climate models predict a trend towards colder than average temperatures here by mid February into the first week in March.   The predicted storm track remains to our west, giving us rain or a mix. 

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Tuesday 2/5 Followup- The extended range models are beginning to show an active pattern developing next Tuesday and continuing into the President’s Day weekend and beyond.

A cold front will move through this Friday…the front will likely stall and remain to our south, acting as a conduit for southern jet stream moisture to over-run our area early next week. A set up for mixed precipitation – rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow as several separate impulses develop and affect our region.

No large snowstorms showing yet, but things will definitely get more interesting. Stay tuned.  [/su_note]

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER AND CLIPPER REVIEW

Updated high temp for Saturday

So…the NAM did well last night with the predicted QPF resulting in about 1 inch of snow in and around Philadelphia.  However, the precipitation started earlier and ended later than the NAM forecast. The snow shield also extended further north than expected.  The NBM and GFS did poorly with this clipper.

For the weekend, the upper air pattern moves away from the highly amplified cold flow we have had since Wednesday.

Skies clear tonight and it will be mostly sunny Saturday with high pressure building in.  Winds will be very light and temperatures will feel warmer than the expected high of 36-38 34 on Saturday.

Sunny skies continue on Sunday and temperatures warm to 46- 48.  Clouds move in late Sunday.

For the long range outlook, the extended forecast seem to change every few days.  After a warmup during the early part of the coming week, things cool down later in the week but not as much as had been previously forecast.  Currently, any storms in the long range are showing as rain for us, not as snow.