Winter Weather Update

It’s interesting how much model predictions can change. The Sunday system had been predicted to be a weak, disorganized low with light rain, possibly mixed with snow on the onset.

Tonight’s model runs continue with today’s trend of a more developed low with increased QPF. The NAM predicted QPF has gone from 0.15 inches water yesterday to 0.76 inches water tonight. Some dynamic cooling will allow areas north and west of the city to have some sleet and perhaps freezing rain before changing to all rain. The GFS is somewhat warmer and has some sleet even further north and west, also changing to rain. GFS QPF is about 0.50, also greatly increased from the day before.

Clouds move in mid to late afternoon. The mixed precip starts between 7 and 9 Sunday evening and the rain ends about daybreak Monday and clouds linger.


This morning and this afternoon’s NAM has the Sunday night precipitation coming in later in the evening–  about 9 PM.  Temperatures just north of the city will be near freezing and temperatures of the lower critical levels of the atmosphere are coming in below freezing.

Sleet and Freezing rain graphic
Areas of Sleet and Freezing rain 7-10 PM Sunday

Middle levels of the atmosphere are too warm for snow, but freezing rain and sleet is possible before a changeover to all rain later Sunday night.   Stay tuned.