Posted Thursday 11/28/24 @ 1:42 PM — The rain has tapered off on schedule, about 1 PM. Most of the area received the rainfall predicted, about 0.60 – 0.90″ —
MRMS rain-gauge measured rainfall combined with rain-gauge calibrated and interpolated radar-based summary of ACTUAL RAINFALL RECEIVED. Color shading is in inches. Line contour numbers are in mm. (25.4 mm= 1 inch) (Click on image for a larger view.)
Based on the models, a considerable amount of cloudiness is still forecast for this afternoon, although the latest satellite image shows building high pressure and breaks in the overcast to our west—
Satellite image 1:41 PM with superimposed HRRR pressure gradient. Negative pressure gradient shows the low pressure system will intensify and move to near Cape Cod during the afternoon. Some breaks in the overcast to our far west may move in earlier than forecast by the models, but never second guess the models. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Colder weather tonight and into the weekend. The latest RRFS (experimental) shows light scattered rain and snow showers Friday mid- afternoon —
Todays’ 12z Experimental RRFS foreasts some scattered light showers and patchy dark low clouds Friday afternoon due to instability. Violet shading shows snow precipitation type. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Note: the RRFS is still experimental but under active development and is increasingly used here for forecasts.
Thanksgiving Day Forecast Update
Posted Wednesday 11/27/24 @ 4:56 PM — The models have come together with the Thanksgiving Day forecast. Rain moves in between 1-3 AM and becomes moderate to heavy during the morning hours. The low pressure system exits and intensifies near NYC .
Rain is expected to taper off and end between 1 and 2 PM. It will still remain quite cloudy. Quite windy conditions develop about noon and continue into the afternoon with gusts 35-40 mph.
11-27-24 18zGFS forecast at noon Thursday. Center of low is over Long Island Sound and drier air shuts off the rain in our area by 1-2 PM (Click on image for a larger view.)
It will get cold Thursday night and colder into the weekend.
Friday starts sunny but instability cloudiness develops late morning and widely scattered rain showers are possible during Friday afternoon, especially northwest of the city. Far northwestern areas may see some snow showers.
Thanksgiving Day Forecast Update
Posted Wednesday 11/27/24 @ 8:27 AM — Last night’s models show a faster moving storm and somewhat lower rainfall amounts for our area.
Most models show about 0.60″ of rainfall, starting about 2 AM Thursday morning and ending about 1-3 PM Thursday. (The GFS continues with about 0.8″)
Here’s the latest RRFS (experimental) model forecast for 2 PM showing the departing rain—
11-27-24 06z RRFS experimental model forecast for 2 PM showing simulated radar/rainfall at 2 PM.(Click on image for a larger view.)
The weather pattern gets cold starting this weekend.
Posted Tuesday 11/26/24 @ 4:44 PM — The cold front moved through this morning and parts of our area had a ‘reasonable’ rainfall, while others did not.
Here’s the MRMS precipitation summary for this morning’s rainfall—
MRMS rain-gauge measured rainfall combined with rain-gauge calibrated and interpolated radar-based summary of ACTUAL RAINFALL RECEIVED. Color shading is in inches. Line contour numbers are in mm. (25.4 mm= 1 inch) (Click on image for a larger view.)
No significant change in the forecasts from my earlier updates for Wednesday through Friday.
Wednesday starts sunny but will have increasing clouds during the day. By 3-4 PM, it should be mostly cloudy.
Rain starts after midnight or closer to 2 AM Thursday morning. Moderate rain, heavier in the late morning, tapers off during the afternoon and may end as early as 3-4 PM, although the latest NBM has lingering sprinkles through 6 PM or so. Clouds linger into the evening. Windy and gusty!
The models are cranking out a generalized 0.65″ to 0.90″ with the usual scattering of lighter and heavier amounts.
Friday marks the beginning of a colder, mostly sunny and dry pattern that lingers through at least next week. Dry-passage cold fronts will bring high temperatures down quite a bit next week.
Tuesday and Thursday Forecast Updates
Posted Monday 11/25/24 @ 4:57 PM — Little change with the forecast for Tuesday and increasing clarification of the rain forecast for Thursday with a faster exiting storm .
A cold front moves through during the morning Tuesday. Showers will give us about 0.15″ to 0.20″ with the greater rainfall (as usual) falling north and west of the city. Skies clear and sun is expected by the early afternoon. Colder weather moves in for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Wednesday will have clouds from the city westward in the morning, then increasing clouds west to east throughout our area.
Rain begins a few hours after midnight Wednesday and continues Thursday, Thanksgiving Day. It may be windy and gusty as low pressure intensifies off the NJ coast. Rainfall is consistently forecast to be in the 0.60″-0.80″ range.
For travelers on Thanksgiving, unfortunately it looks fairly rainy and somewhat windy.
Rain may end about 2-3 PM around Philadelphia and towards evening in NJ according to the latest GFS and ECMWF models which is a quicker exit than previously forecast.
Latest GFS with the rain exiting about 3 PM Thursday—
11-25-24 18z GFS forecast for 3 PM. Rain quickly exiting our area. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Dry, windy and colder Friday with periods of instability low level cloudiness
Thanksgiving Weather
Originally Posted Sun @ 8:55 PM — —This week’s active weather pattern will be highlighted by a cold front that moves through Tuesday morning with some showers, followed by colder temperatures. Another highlight will be a storm that approaches Wednesday night into Thursday morning bringing rain to our area.
The models are in good agreement with the cold front passage Tuesday morning. Most are cranking out 0.25 inches of much needed rain with this front. Colder temperatures are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.
A storm approaches lateWednesday night into Thursday. There’s been considerable uncertainty about both the track of this storm and its intensity. Much has to do with the size and configuration of the mass of cold air that descends down following the cold front on Tuesday.
The AI models have had a faster, more southern track with little intensification of this storm and very little rain for us. The latest GFS is somewhat similar.
However most of the models have moved towards a track that is further north with greater intensification and brings about 0.75 inches of rain for our area.
The latest ECMWF is most aggressive with this system —
11-24-24 12z ECMWF forecast for Thursday morning. This is very aggressive with the intensification and the northward track, but is not necessarily correct. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Since there’s so much spread in the models, I expect there will be further changes in the forecast for Thanksgiving Day. Stay tuned.
Posted Friday 11/22/24 @ 7:19 PM — Updated Rainfall totals for the past 48 hours—
MRMS rain-gauge measured rainfall combined with rain-gauge calibrated and interpolated radar-based summary of ACTUAL RAINFALL RECEIVED. Color shading is in inches. Line contour numbers are in mm. (25.4 mm= 1 inch) (Click on image for a larger view.)
So Where’s the Snow?
Posted Friday 11/22/24 @ 8:11 AM — So where’s the snow? The atmosphere above 3000 feet is cold enough for snow, BUT surface temperatures are not below the critical 36.5º right now here in the Philadelphia area. The models predicting snow were assuming a high precipitation rate and total precip (water equiv) of 0.4″-0.6″ today with dynamic cooling.
Unfortunately, the latest NBM is only cranking out less than half of that (0.18″) so the dynamic cooling from previously expected higher precipitation rates isn’t occurring.
Somewhat higher precipitation rates are expected this afternoon, so some snow flakes may mix with the rain. But no accumulating snow for most of our area, except far northwest. The NAM model proves to be correct again.
I’ve recently used the NAM for fewer forecasts, putting more emphasis on the experimental RRFS, but winter weather here is still often best predicted with the NAM.
Forecast Change
Posted Thursday 11/21/24 @ 10:00 PM — Tonight’s models have returned to previous precipitation levels of about 0.4” to 0.5” water equivalent here for Friday. A difficult forecast, as temperatures are still forecast to be in the mid 30s, reducing chances of accumulation. Temperatures aloft are cold enough to support snow much of the time from the city north and west and even parts of NJ in the early morning.
Despite the return to higher water precipitation amounts, the range of model snow accumulations remains similar to those posted earlier this evening, including the HRDPS which I had cast off as likely being too high. Any heavy burst of precipitation could cause enough dynamic cooling to reduce surface temperatures and allow more accumulation than forecast. Again, a tough forecast.
Posted Thursday 11/21/24 @ 7:33 PM — I had a chance to look at more of the afternoon models. I see a trend towards less total precipitation on Friday, especially with the AI models.
Long time followers here might be asking, “What about the NAM?” And what about “Never Ignore the NAM”, my long time mantra when it comes to snow here.
Well, looking at the NAM, it has little to no snow accumulation in the immediate Philadelphia area and captures the trend of the AI models that show lesser amounts of precipitation here than forecast yesterday.
Here’s the afternoon NAM—
11-21-24 18z NAM total snowfall accumulation (Click on image for a larger view.)
So while many will see snow flakes tomorrow, especially from the city north and west, the lower amounts of precip falling translates into no accumulation for much of the immediate Philadelphia area.
This is supported by the afternoon RRFS, also just available. So, while the Canadians certainly know their snow, I think we need to ignore the HRDPS posted earlier.
Interesting Storm Continues
Posted Thursday 11/21/24 @ 5:08 PM — With cold air aloft as a result of a closed upper low and a northeasterly surface flow of chilly air, precipitation that’s expected to continue through much of Friday will be a mix of snow and rain, especially from the city north and west.
Areas near the ground (actually, what we call the “temperature” is measured at 2 meters (6 feet) above ground level) will be in the low to mid 30’s during the morning and early afternoon. As mentioned below, 36.5º F is often considered the minimum temperature for snow.
Of course, for snow accumulation, we really need lower temperatures to be closer to 32º to 33º unless the precipitation rate is very high.
Here’s the very latest Canadian high resolution (HRDPS) which did well previous seasons but I think they’re on the high side—
11-21-24 18z HRDPS snow totals at 1 PM. I think these are likely too high. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Here’s another take on the snowfall, this time from the experimental REFS, (ensemble version of the RRFS) —
11-21-24 12z REFS forecast snow accumulation through 1 PM Friday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Frankly, I don’t think any of models are going to get this right, with so many unknowns and temperatures above freezing.
On top of that, the AI models seem to show less precipitation than the operational models, which, if correct, pulls the rug out of any snow totals forecasts.
Continued “Interesting” Weather
Posted Thursday 11/21/24 @ 1:43 PM — The scenario described for several days is occurring with a surface low wrapping around an upper low pressure system.
Cold air aloft is already causing some precipitation to fall as melted snow and the models are suggesting that much of the additional precipitation (expected to be an additional 0.6″ to 1″ water equivalent) to fall through Friday into Friday evening will be a mix of rain, rain and snow and snow in some colder, higher elevated areas around Philadelphia.
ECMWF 3 hour water precip forecast at 4 PM Friday afternoon. Note the blue 36.5º isotherm which is considered by some the upper limit that snow can fall and accumulate. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The latest Canadian HRDPS model has some measurable snowfall for us on Friday, albeit quite little—
12z HRDPS forecast snow depth Friday afternoon. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The HRDPS has done well in previous winters, but I think it might be overly aggressive with the snow accumulation, if you consider 1/2″ or less aggressive.
The experimental RRFS seems to ring true, but it’s unproven—
11-21-24 12z RRFS snow accumulation for Friday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The NBM has this amount, based on my own “technique”
NBM snowfall with the weatherguy’s technique (Click on image for a larger view.)
With high precipitation rates causing dynamic cooling and with temperatures at or below 36.5º, snow and snow mixed with rain is forecast by several models. Warm ground surface temperatures will limit accumulation.
These accumulations assume heavy precipitation rates. It should be noted that the latest ECMWF-AIFS has the storm exiting much faster with less precip here. That would make these snow accumulations moot.
I’ll try to nail it down further this evening.
Finally Some Rain
Posted Thursday 11/21/24 @ 9:16 AM — The Philadelphia area finally got some rain last night and rainfall totals were similar to those forecast by the NBM.
Here’s the latest MRMS rainfall totals—
MRMS rain-gauge measured rainfall combined with rain-gauge calibrated and interpolated radar-based summary of ACTUAL RAINFALL RECEIVED. Color shading is in inches. Line contour numbers are in mm. (25.4 mm= 1 inch) (Click on image for a larger view.)
The models are still showing a rain-snow mix Friday, with little if any, accumulation in the immediate PHL area. There’s quite a range of timing and location and the ensemble models show considerable uncertainty with the position of the surface low on Friday.
I’ll update around noon today with the latest model data. Stay tuned.
Wild Interesting Weather
Posted Wednesday 11/20/24 @ 4:47 PM — As posted Tuesday, the models are showing an upper air low pressure system which will link up with the developing secondary surface low and this secondary surface low will rotate around the upper low until they become vertically stacked, likely to occur Friday. Cold air aloft may result in a mix of snow/rain (non-accumulating snow) even in the northwest part of the city Friday morning.
For Tonight: The rain will move in about 10 PM in western Chester/Montco/Bucks and will arrive in Philadelphia between 11 PM and midnight. Rain will become heavy as a squall line type feature develops and winds shift abruptly from the southeast to the northwest with gusts of 40 mph. The abrupt wind shift could be damaging.
Total Rainfall Thursday is slightly more than that posted earlier today. Here’s a new NBM run—
11-20-24 18z NBM model rainfall through Thursday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Rain tapers off Thursday during the morning hours southwest of the city but areas northeast of the city may continue to have rain.
As the surface low rotates around the upper low and moves westward, then southward towards us and more rainfall is expected on Friday. As much as an additional 0.35 + inches of rain.
ECMWF forecast for Friday 1 AM Surface low (black L) rotates around Upper low (blue L) Rain returns as the surface low moves west then southward towards us again! (Click on image for a larger view.)
Rain Forecast Update
Posted Wednesday 11/20/24 @ 10:53 AM — This morning’s models have trended even later with the onset of rain tonight. While the latest HRRR has the line of heavy rain moving into Philadelphia with a few showers out ahead of the main line between 11 PM and midnight, the experimental RRFS is even further delayed. Rainfall totals look to approach those forecast by the AI models several days ago.
Here’s the latest experimental 12z RRFS which just became available—
11-20-24 12z RRFS-A shows a line of showers with a sharp wind shift just entering western Chester/Montgomery/Bucks counties at midnight.
There’s a sharp shift in winds with this line of storms with gusts forecast to approach 35-40 mph.
Here’s the 12z model blend total rainfall through 36 hours—
Posted Wednesday 11/20/24 @ 8:29 AM — A quick update. Here are the current trends. Most of today (Wednesday) will be cloudy, although some areas, especially south and west may see some periods of sun.
Rain moves in from west to east between 7 PM and 11 PM, trending later about 10PM or 11 PM.
Rainfall is expected to be as originally forecast by the AI models.
11-20-24 12z HRRR total rainfall through 7 AM Thursday (Click on image for a larger view.)
Showers may continue northwest areas on Thursday.
Additional rainfall (0.35″) on Friday as the surface low rotates around the upper low.
An Interesting Storm Expected
Posted Tuesday 11/19/24 @ 4:50 PM — A weak warm front moves through tonight. Some very light scattered showers are possible this evening with this warm front. Some of the moisture is streaming up from a tropical system near the Gulf coast.
Current RADAR/MRMS combined with winds at 10,000 feet. (Click on image for a larger view.)Current satellite water vapor image with superimposed RAP model 500-1000 mb thickness lines (yellow), Mean Sea Level Pressure isobars (black contours) potential vorticity (fine violet contours) with superimposed MRMS RADAR. Some of the moisture and energy for the developing system will come from a tropical source. (Click on image for a larger view.)
A cold front and deep low near the Great Lakes will spawn a secondary low off the coast Wednesday evening into Thursday. This will be helped by energy/moisture from a tropical system. Rain moves in during the early evening Wednesday and becomes heavier towards midnight. STRONG WINDS with the actual frontal passage about 3 AM Thursday.
Rain tapers off around noon Thursday here.
What’s interesting is the models are now showing the upper air low pressure system will link up with the developing secondary surface low and this secondary surface low will rotate around the upper low until they become vertically stacked, likely to occur Friday.
So rain Wednesday night will taper on Thursday, but more rain is expected Friday as this surface low undergoes precession around the upper low. Strong winds with gusts over 30 mph.
The models are still showing a range of 0.6″ to 1.2+” of rainfall with some of it coming Friday. Looks interesting. Stay tuned.
Posted Tuesday 11/19/24 @ 9:16 AM — Tuesday will have sunshine through high, thin cirrus cloudiness for much of the day. Clouds thicken about 5 PM, as a weak warm front approaches this evening.
Some models are cranking out 0.01″ to 0.03″ (very light, scattered) showers this evening which will move away with the warm front tonight.
For Wednesday, most of the day will be dry but cloudy. Rain moves in about 7-10 PM and becomes moderate to heavy especially areas north of the city.
While some models were trending towards lower rainfall amounts yesterday, the ECMWF has been consistent with close to 1+” of rain just north of the city and the model blend (NBM) shows at least 0.70″+ of much needed rainfall.
This morning’s 12z NBM total rainfall by 7 AM Thursday morning. Light blue contours are every 0.1″ rainfall and rainfall increases from south to north. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The experimental RRFS shows lesser amounts of rain near the city and has a different coverage—
11-19-24 06z RRFS total rainfall through 7 AM Thursday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
BTW, the AI models (ECMWF-AIFS and the GraphCast-GFS) continue to have 1″-1.3″ of rainfall in the immediate PHL area. Likely outliers, but we’ll see.
Philadelphia Marathon Forecast Update– A mix of sun then clouds. Temps in the morning in the mid 40s rising to the low 50s in the afternoon. Windy/gusty from the west.
Diminishing Precip?
Posted Monday 11/18/24 @ 4:29 PM — Some clouds move in during the afternoon Tuesday and some light showers are predicted northern, southern, and western areas late evening.
Wednesday will have increasing cloudiness, with some sun and bright spots at times mid-day. Rain moves in from the west about 6-9 PM.
It’s been looking like a slam dunk for some moderate to heavy rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday. Several models (GFS, NAM, Canadian RGEM) have been trending towards lower rainfall totals, especially in and west of Philadelphia.
What had been looking like a range of 0.6″-1.0″ is now more likely to be 0.35-0.7″ in the immediate PHL area. Areas north and east are forecast to receive more rain. (The latest NBM is staying with a 0.6″- 0.9″ rainfall, but its forecasts tend to lag trend-wise.)
This morning’s GFS model captures the trend—
11-18-24 12z GFS forecast total rain fall through Thursday morning. As we always see, the exact placement of heavier rain bands is rarely ever predicted accurately by the models. especially two days in advance. (Click on image for a larger view.)
It should also be noted that the AI models are still predicting rainfall almost double what is forecast by the operational models with many areas receiving over 1″ of rain in and around the city due to more explosive development of low pressure. As I said yesterday, this storm will be a good assessment of the AI models.
I’m confident the forecast will change again, but the current trend with the operational models, unfortunately, is for lower precipitation amounts near the city.
Philadelphia Marathon Forecast
Posted Monday 11/18/24 @ 4:36 PM — Sunday Outlook—It’s looking dry, windy, with considerable cloudiness due to a warm front. Showers with this warm front currently forecast far north of the our area. Temps in the low to mid 40s in the morning rising to 50º by 1 PM.
Originally Posted Sun @ 6:19 PM — —A weak cold front will move through around daybreak Monday morning. Some models are showing a few widely scattered sprinkles in early morning hours; other models show weak radar echoes where rainfall never reaches the ground.
Monday should become sunny and windy.
Tuesday will be sunny in the morning with increasing cloudiness in the mid to late afternoon.
Wednesday will be mostly cloudy. An increasing number of models are showing some showers, especially south of the city, in the morning with more heavier rain moving during the early evening.
There’s a continuing signal for moderate to heavy rain as low pressure forms near us on late Wednesday into Thursday. While some models have the heaviest rain north of us, most are forecasting at least 0.6 to 1.0″ which would be the heaviest rainfall we’ve had here in months.
It looks like it might be quite stormy late Wednesday through Thursday as very windy conditions develop.
Here’s the latest ECMWF-AIFS and the Graphcast-GFS AI model forecasts for Thursday morning—
11-17-24 12z ECMWF-AIFS AI model forecast for 7 AM Thursday. The red contour is the 500-1000mb thickness line, which in winter is a rough dividing line between rain and snow. Notice the deep level low over the Great Lakes. (Click on image for a larger view.)11-17-24 06z Graphcast-GFS AI model forecast for 7 AM Thursday. The red contour is the 500-1000mb thickness line, which in winter is a rough dividing line between rain and snow. Note that the Graphcast-GFS AI model is released over 14 hours after the model is run, quite a lag. It’s difficult to compare the ECMWF and GFS AI models in real time due to the lag. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Friday looks to be unsettled with clouds and sun, windy and cold and possibly some light scattered showers. Snow flurries are possible far north and west of Allentown.
My regular visitors to this site probably have noticed that I’m increasingly using the AI models for this site. I’m really fascinated to see if they do as well (or better) than traditional numeric weather prediction models. This storm will be a good test, as they are predicting heavier rainfall for us than the traditional models.
