We finally have some sun and the first part of this upcoming week should feature sunshine and increasing temperatures.
The current water vapor image captures all the elements for this coming week’s weather—
Sunday: Current satellite water vapor image with superimposed RAP model 500-1000 mb thickness lines (yellow), Mean Sea Level Pressure isobars (black contours) potential vorticity (fine violet contours) with superimposed MRMS RADAR. The orange-red area show higher temperatures and the orange arrow depicts the general direction of the warmer flow towards us. Two areas of low pressure (with white arrows) are visible; one in the center of the country will move up north and west of us. The low in Georgia will move out to our south and east. Also depicted with a blue arrow is an influx of colder air in the Northwestern US. This air will eventually move in behind a cold front late Thursday or Friday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Temperatures will likely get into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday.
Here’s the current NAEFS forecast for Thursday afternoon. A cold front will move through, likely with thunderstorms, and the front may stall east west to our south. —
NAEFS model statistical “mode” version with overlayed GEFS model “bias-corrected” precipitation forecast for Thursday afternoon. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The upcoming Memorial Day Weekend is likely to start reasonably nice (but cool) but with an increasing chance of showers and clouds from maybe Sunday and more likely into Monday. Much uncertainty, but this is how things look now.
Posted Saturday 05/18/24 @ 9:17 AM — Well, it looks like I should have stayed (see my post from Friday) with the more rainy forecast of the NAEFS for today, Saturday. (The GFS and the much-touted ECMWF led most of the TV/radio forecasts astray today.)
Here’s current radar —
Radar at 9:15 AM Saturday Most of yesterday’s models had kept most this rain just to our to western suburbs today. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Here’s the latest experimental RRFS model simulated radar forecast for 4 PM—
Experimental RRFS simulated radar forecast for 4 PM Saturday. (Folks, I’m not sure how well the RRFS model development is going. I once looked upon the RRFS (to be released early 2025) as a major advance. I’m not so sure now and issues with the model’s ‘advanced’ FV3 core (which works in the GFS), is not working so well in the higher resolution RRFS, especially with summertime convection (thunderstorms). I’ve put so much time and effort in recent months programming to download the model that I feel compelled to use it. They are actively working to improve it. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Sunday looks dry, but there will likely be plenty of low clouds for much of the day.
Previously Posted Fri 4:44 PM —Today’s models keep the rain in central Pennsylvania, barely making it past our far western suburbs on Saturday. Sunday looks to be dry, maybe some sun.
