Updated Fri 8/05 9:52 AM —We had some showers Thursday evening, more widespread than had been forecast by the models. 

For today, Friday, there’s a range of forecasts, with many models showing little in the way of rainfall to as much as an inch.  The trend is for not much.  Timing varies from as early as mid to late afternoon, to storms moving through late evening and even after midnight.

I’m curious whether the new, experimental limited area model clarifies the forecast. It has maintained a forecast of a moderate cluster of storms early evening.  

Updated Wed 9:38 PM — The forecast is unchanged for Thursday.  Very hot and humid.  A few scattered thunderstorms my pop up after 5 PM, but with low vertical shear, they won’t last long or cover much territory.

A cold front approaches on Friday. A large cluster of thunderstorms will develop in western suburbs and move into the city between 6 and 8 PM. Some heavy rain possible with these storms. Shear values will again be low, so we’ll have to see if the models are getting this right.

Update Tue 08/02 @ 8:20 PM — Not much happening except increasing heat. A weak front moved through about 1 PM today. A few isolated showers broke out with the frontal passage (not predicted by the models.)

The increasing temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday are well-advertised by the regular radio and TV media.

Here’s some specifics info for Thursday based on the current NBM model —

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Updated Sat 11:16 PM — Some models are predicting as much as 0.6”-1.1” of rain Sunday night into Monday morning.

Updated Sat 9:53 PM —A warm front had been expected to move in late Sunday night. Things have speeded up a bit. The latest models show clouds moving in as early as 1-2 PM  Sunday and becoming mostly cloudy by late afternoon.  Some showers develop early evening.

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Tonight’s showers not a drought-buster

Update Fri 07/29 @ 7:44 AM — Last night, our area received varying amounts of much-needed rain. Here’s the amounts we received Thursday evening according to the MRMS—

MRMS accumulated 12 hour precipitation (Click on image for a larger view.)

For this evening (Fri), the models are less enthusiastic about additional rain. The HRRR has much of the area with just spotty amounts, many areas with no rain. The HREF forecasts some rain, but scattered with light amounts. Not a drought-buster this evening.

The HREF has any showers/thunderstorms beginning this evening around 5-6 PM (a few isolated showers before then) and continuing through 11 PM or so.

HREF shows light, scattered showers—

HREF 1 hour precipitation at 8 PM this evening. Exact placement should not be taken literally with weather models. This is a 1 hour snapshot. Additional rain through 11 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)

My Weekend Weather Forecast will be posted this evening.

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