WEEKEND WEATHER- EARLY EDITION

[su_box title=”Forecast Update Fri 12 Nooon” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]For Fri afternoon- snow flurries. QPF ranges from 0.00 to 0.02 inches water. Not sure why the roads are being brined out here.  Temps expected well above freezing.

This morning’s models have speeded up the exit of the rain for Sunday. It now looks like the rain will be over mid-morning Sunday.[/su_box]

Here are the important trends: the well-advertised rain moves in later on Saturday night and departs a bit later on Sunday afternoon.

Following the clipper type disturbance that moves through Friday afternoon, high pressure builds in on Saturday.

Saturday starts sunny with a light winds before low pressure approaches.

As a low pressure system approaches from the west, high clouds move in early afternoon Saturday and slowly thicken during the late afternoon.  Winds become easterly.   Rain about midnight.  High 47.

Sunday starts rainy, moderately heavy at times in the early morning.   Rain tapers and ends about noon-2 PM. Mid-morning.   Some clearing of clouds possible, some sun possible.  Mild.  High 61. (GFS and NBM)

As was the case a few weeks ago, the NAM shows lower temps and has the high only in the low to mid 50s. on Sunday.

I’ll update later tonight with newer model runs.

WEATHER UPDATE- THURS

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, when predicted QPF values are in the 0.10 range or less from a clipper-type system, the trend can be for the precip to become negligible.

Such is the case with today’s NAM where QPF values have fallen to 0.01 inches water and the GFS 0.03.

A flurry, at best for Friday afternoon/evening.  Cancel that 1 inch snowfall.

WINTER IS NOT OVER

[su_box title=”Forecast Update For Friday Snow” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]QPF values remain in the 0.10 inch range. An earlier start for the light snow on Friday (3-5 PM) suggests the snow will fall before temperatures drop, especially within the city limits.

So little accumulation expected in the city, just outside the city, north and west, about a coating to 1 inch of snow possible.

When dealing with QPF values in this low range, this light snow could easily disappear in the coming model runs. [/su_box]

Winter is maintaining a presence well into March.  A fast moving clipper type system will move across our area late Friday afternoon into evening. The QPF with this system is 0.13 inches water.

About 1-1.5 inches of snow will accumulate Friday evening and end about 2 AM Saturday morning.

A warm up late Saturday with rain into Sunday is the current outlook.  Then a return to somewhat below average temperatures.