Latest NAM data  coming in.  No change from previous forecast .

[su_note note_color=”#ebf2d9″]With warm temperatures to start and slow chill-down that occurs later this evening, it’s possible we may see a wet coating to maybe about 1/2 inch of snow. Temperatures chill down to about 32 during the early morning hours.[/su_note]

Regarding the light snow for PHL, today’s model runs have increased the QPF to about 0.15 inches of water for PHL and immediate adjacent areas.   This is a small fraction of the QPF compared to last week’s storms.

[su_note note_color=”#ebf2d9″]With warm temperatures to start and slow chill-down that occurs later this evening, it’s possible we may see a wet coating to maybe about 1/2 inch of snow. Temperatures chill down to about 32 during the early morning hours. [/su_note]

When you’re dealing with such low QPF values, it’s hard to tell how much is model ‘noise’.  (If you’re someone who wants more snow (?), the fact that it’s happening at night is in your favor.)

Whatever falls will result in slippery conditions Tuesday morning for the early commute.

[su_note note_color=”#ebf2d9″]Those of you used to checking in here for the latest NAM update around 9-9:40 pm are reminded that with Daylight Saving Time, the data is available an hour later.  And the GFS data is available after 11:30pm [/su_note]

Last nights models have QPF values around 0.06 inches water for the nor’easter that will essentially miss us. This translates into minimal snow.

This amounts to snow showers or snow flurries,  mostly this evening.   Some icy patches possible early Tuesday during the early morning commute.  That’s about it.

Looking back at the forecasts over the past few days, the GFS briefly had more of a snowfall for us, later joined by the NAM; but the other models more  consistently kept the storm offshore.