As posted last night, the GFS, NAM models were leaning towards 0.40 to 0.8 inch of snow accumulation, ending between 7 and 8 AM Wednesday morning. It’s not unusual for these post-frontal passage snow events to trend lower on the snow forecasts, as cold air often scours out the moisture available for snow. The models are showing less wave development on the front and faster influx of cold air.
This morning’s high resolution NAM NEST has just a coating of snow. (0.27 to 0.45 inches of snow, basically nothing to a coating). The NAM has just a coating or snow showers, based on built-in snow algorithms.
If I use my time-tested, old-fashioned NAM FOUS data technique, I’m still at the 1 inch accumulation.
BTW, over the past year or so, I have developed software and scripts that automatically download real-time raw model data directly from the NCEP and the CMC. (You may have noticed the new model graphics I post here.)
I think I may be running into a situation where my forecasts are distracted by “too much information”.
The most recent HRRR from 7 AM today shows nothing accumulating, with the precip remaining a wet mix of rain and snow!
So the trend is for a minimal snow accumulation. Stay tuned.