[su_note note_color=”#defcdc”]Update Mon 10:15 pm: Tonight’s NAM, NAM Nest and the two WRF models have become available. I’m staying with the 1 maybe 2 inch snow totals, even though the built in snow algorithms are showing about 0.5 inches of wet snow. Snow ends 8-9 Am Wednesday. We’ll have a better handle tomorrow.
Update Mon 10:50 pm: Tonight’s GFS has also gone into the 0.5 inch snow accumulation range. So the trend is for less snow, less than an inch.
The models are in fairly good agreement that rain will change to snow sometime after midnight Tuesday and light wet snow will be falling until sometime between 7 and 9 AM Wednesday morning.
The NAM built-in snow algorithms have only a half inch of snow accumulating, although if I use my old NAM FOUS data technique, it’s probably about 1.5 inches.
The GFS, Canadian High Resolution and the European are in the 1.3-2.0 inch range of accumulation using their built-in algorithms.
We know that these sort of post frontal passage scenarios often change, usually in the direction of less snow.
Tonight’s model runs will fall into the range of the 36-48 hour short range higher resolution models, and I’ll do a quick update later.
After the snow stops, it will become sunny by Wednesday afternoon, but fairly cold. Treated roadways will be clear by afternoon.