THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

MIXED SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY MORNING

Fri 10:05 AM Forecast Review — So, we had even more ice accumulation than I would have guessed and temperatures did fall at or below freezing well into NJ, as forecast by last night’s NAM-NEST and HRRR.  The URMA shows temperatures at 2 AM—
URMA from 2 AM Friday morning  (URMA= “UnRestricted Mesoscale Analysis”)  The URMA represents actual temperatures and conditions and is used for model verification.  Since it represents corrected observations, the URMA is is released with a six hour delay to allow for corrected data input. (Click on image for a larger view.)

While the changeover to rain occurred, there was continued ice accretion past the rise in air temperatures above 32º.   Most of the models over-predicted the rate of temperature rise.  The major global models (GFS, ECMWF) never showed the temperatures drops into NJ. 

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