Tag Archives: drought


Unsettled but very little rain?

Updated Sun 4:38 PM — We’ve had no showers this afternoon (as forecast by the NAM-NEST, not the ECMWF). There may still may be some scattered activity late tonight.  The main area of showers will move off to our north tonight.

The cold front comes through early evening Monday.  The NAM-NEST shows a line of storms, but they may diminish in intensity as they move through our area. Updates tomorrow.

Update Sun @ 10:14 AM

Forecast Review— We had some scattered storms after midnight, not forecast by last night’s US models. Still not much rain in the immediate PHL area—

MRMS rainfall totals. The immediate PHL area received anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.44″, with a few localized exceptions. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Sunday will be partly sunny/partly cloudy very warm and humid. High 86º ± 1.1º Dew points near 70º will make it feel much warmer. (~90º)

Sunday satellite water vapor image shows current conditions: warm front in western PA that will move north. Some models have most of the showers with this warm front moving north of our area tonight. Some models have some storms 3-5 PM this afternoon ahead of the front.

A warm front will move through around midnight with showers and thunderstorms. Most models have the bulk of the rain moving to our north. The ECMWF shows some storms developing around the Delaware Valley abut 3-5 PM or so, ahead of the warm front passage this evening.

The ECMWF 3 previous hour rainfall forecast for 5 PM —

ECMWF forecast 3 hour rainfall at 5 PM today. Notice how the rainfall seems to bypass Philadelphia! (Click on image for a larger view.)

It should be noted that the NAM-NEST shows no showers here this afternoon. I’m including the ECMWF graphic because the ECMWF more correctly forecast the showers last night.

Monday afternoon shows the greatest promise of showers and thunderstorms here.

Updated Sat 11:11 PM —The rain most areas had today was minimal. For Sunday, there will be even less chance of rain.

Temperatures approaching 88° will feel hotter with dew points near 70°. There’s a chance of highly isolated showers around 6 PM. Any rain Sunday night is forecast to move north of us.  We’ll have to wait for Monday late afternoon for any chance of significant rain.
Even Monday may not offer relief from the dry conditions.

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Previously Posted Fri 8:21 PM —

Some low clouds, maybe fog, in the morning. Perhaps a few sprinkles early. Most of the day will be a mix of sun and clouds. Little or no rain until evening.

GFS forecast for Sunday at 2 PM. Not much rain. (Click on image for a larger view.)

In fact, the latest NAM-NEST shows heavy storms in far western suburbs about 11 PM, falling apart as they try to move east towards us.

High temperature 86.5º ± 2.6º NBM model Blue Bell, PA