Philadelphia Winter Weather Update

Last Updated

I know what the official NWS forecast is for Philadelphia, but people need to know that there are EXTREME differences between the GFS  and NAM models.  When I’ve seen this before, it means the storm can fizzle out for our area.

While the NWS is warning of high snow totals for PHL, (and the NAM supports this), the more reliable GFS has the bulk of the storm missing Philadelphia. If the GFS is correct, we only get a few inches of snow here in PHL.

You’ve heard the real story here.  Let’s see what happens.

Winter Weather Update

Last Updated

I’m away but still looking at the weather in Philadelphia.

I really think PHL will miss much of the heavy snowfall.  The GFS has much of the coastal storm development further east and north , so 4-7 inches looks more likely for our area.  (The NAM has higher amounts, but it has been overstating preciptation amounts all winter.)

Away during this wintery week

Last Updated

 

Sorry I’ve been unable to update this weather blog this week.  Away on vacation!

Caribbean weather - Sunday
Caribbean weather – Sunday

But  looking at the forecast maps, a very active storm pattern is developing, with a sharp upper air trough that becomes negatively tilted early in the week, allowing phasing of energy and allowing a deep coastal low to form off of the Delmarva coast. Likely to bring heavy snow to NJ and possibly Philadelphia Monday through Tuesday.

I’ll have to leave this one to the TV weather people.   My regular blog followers know I’m not keen on the TV forecasters, but Adam Joseph on 6-ABC seems to have the best balance, honesty, and knowledge.

Storm Forecasts & Other Things "up in the air".