An interesting weather scenario. The features on today’s GFS forecast model are totally different than what was predicted last week.
Saturday features a developing upper air trough moving over our area with a dry frontal passage late Saturday afternoon accompanied by clouds and some windy conditions. Temperatures on Saturday still mild with a high of 68.
The trough will be over us on Sunday with fair skies and much cooler temps. High in the 50s. An upper air disturbance approaches late Sunday with clouds moving in late in the day.
While the long range forecasts haven’t been consistent over the past week, the GFS suggests an unsettled period of weather next week as a closed low cuts off over us.
A frontal boundary slipped through late Thursday and stalled just to our south. An easterly wind brought moisture and clouds today. An elongated low pressure system will move through along the front tonight and Saturday morning bringing rain.
The rain was previously expected to end early morning, but it now appears that rain and showers may linger until noon or early afternoon. Latest NAM model cranks out almost an inch of rain.
Clouds will linger for much, if not all of the afternoon. High on Saturday near 60.
For Sunday, high pressure will be in control with fair skies and almost seasonable temperatures. High 65
Updated Oct 2 – Change in Fall/Winter precipitation outlook.
I always start my climate forecasts with a reiteration that climate prediction is very different than weather forecasting despite the appearance that they are similar. It’s an inexact science.
That said, there is an overwhelming allure among professional and amateur forecasters to attempt to predict trends in weather based on current weather patterns. So here goes.
It appears that we are experiencing a pattern change from the cold and wet pattern we had over the past year. We have just passed the second peak of the current solar cycle. This would signal a warm period for us, but the recent solar cycle expectedly peaked at a low level.
Nonetheless, we are beginning to see a pattern reminiscent of our last solar peak– increasingly milder temperatures.
In September, I thought we might have drier conditions, but I now feel that precipitation may be near average or above average.
So my climate forecast for this fall and early winter is for<b> warmer, above average temperatures. </b> Amounts of rain or snow near or above average. It doesn’t mean we’ll not see rain or snow or cold periods, but expect temperatures to average above seasonal norms.
A sharp upper air trough will approach our area, with its surface cold front moving through mid-day Saturday. We will have a real taste of fall by late Saturday into Sunday.
For Friday night and Saturday, showers begin and continue into Saturday, ending around noontime. (The NAM continues chances of showers a bit later than the GFS.) High 70. Becoming windy and partly sunny/partly cloudy by late afternoon.
For Sunday, we will be affected by the pool of cool air aloft from the upper trough. Changeable skies with considerable cloudiness is likely. Breezy. Very Cool. High 60.