Away during this wintery week

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Sorry I’ve been unable to update this weather blog this week.  Away on vacation!

Caribbean weather - Sunday
Caribbean weather – Sunday

But  looking at the forecast maps, a very active storm pattern is developing, with a sharp upper air trough that becomes negatively tilted early in the week, allowing phasing of energy and allowing a deep coastal low to form off of the Delmarva coast. Likely to bring heavy snow to NJ and possibly Philadelphia Monday through Tuesday.

I’ll have to leave this one to the TV weather people.   My regular blog followers know I’m not keen on the TV forecasters, but Adam Joseph on 6-ABC seems to have the best balance, honesty, and knowledge.

Winter Weather Update

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Big differences today between the GFS model and the NAM model. The latest NAM cranks out 3-5 inches of snow for PHL.

The GFS has cranked out much less snow in the afternoon run, just a coating.

UPDATE:  tonight’s GFS has 1-2 inches of snow for PHL.

This clipper could surprise in either direction, most likely in the lower accumulation range. Both models start the snow after 1PM and taper to flurries about 7 PM.

Philly Snow Hype Starting for Wednesday

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After unapologetically blowing the Sunday morning ice forecast, the Philly TV forecasters are now hyping up the “snow event” for this Wednesday.

The latest models have 0.06 inches of water falling as snow on Wednesday afternoon. That amount can be random noise in the models, flurries or a light coating of snow.   Hardly a ‘snow event’.

So, Where was the Freezing Rain Forecast?

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I think we all blew the forecast for this morning’s freezing rain.  Nobody predicted the that the rain would get into the area before surface temperatures rose above freezing.  The models had temperatures rising during the night.

That said, I think we all fell asleep at the wheel on this forecast.  There was no thought of “cold air damming” (the tendency of cold air to linger longer close to the surface during a warmup, something the models aren’t good at.)  There was also no thought to the fact that ground temperatures were well below freezing for an extended time.

This is a part-time hobby for me.  I didn’t catch this one and I’m sorry. I drank the official forecast discussion cool-aid and I didn’t critically think about the temperatures this morning.

But if I were a full-time professional meteorologist, I would be hanging my head down today.  I’m wondering if any of the TV “meteorologists” will own up to their very poor forecast? It is their job to predict ice storms like this.  Gee, there’s been deaths, road closures and hundreds of accidents.  Maybe a little humility and apology would be appropriate??  I bet you won’t see a single acknowledgement of this poor forecast.

Storm Forecasts & Other Things "up in the air".