High pressure slowly moves off the coast. A southeasterly flow of moisture on Saturday will herald the approach of a warm front that moves through Saturday night. Warm and very humid conditions return late Saturday night through Monday.
A southwesterly flow of moisture will cause showers late Sunday through most of Monday, but the shower activity will be scattered.
It will not be very wet this weekend, but clear blue skies will be in short supply– expect considerable cloudiness from late Saturday through most of Monday with warm and humid conditions.
A chance of a shower is possible any time from Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Saturday 8/30: Sunshine giving way to increasing cloudiness during the day. Becoming more humid. High 83
Sunday 8/31: Considerable cloudiness with some sun, increasing chance of showers during the late afternoon. Very humid. High 86
Monday 9/1 : Considerable cloudiness, some sun, very warm and very humid. Chance of scattered showers. High 88
As mentioned in recent previous blog posts, there hasn’t been much continuity with forecast model runs over past weeks. What seems like a reasonable forecast two days in the future becomes an imaginary scenario as the day of the forecast approaches.
The same uncertainty is already manifesting itself with this coming Labor Day weekend’s forecast. Yesterday, the weekend looked like a washout. Today, a forecast of rain seems confined to this coming Sunday with the passage of a strong cold front with clearing likely for Monday.
So the forecast is really “up in the air” (where it belongs) for this weekend….there does appear to be a period that we will have rain, but hopefully just one of the three days.
My uncertainty last night with today’s forecast is manifest this morning, as we have an area of showers that is almost stationary and is oriented along the upper air jet flow vorticity at 300mb. This feature could be persistent today and the NAM model (often wrong lately) has been correct with this forecast so far. Indeed, the NAM predicts even heavier showers for the afternoon today.
Some areas today won’t see much if any rain, but if you’re currently getting some rain, this area of rain may be persistent and slow to move.
After a string of almost perfect weekend weather this summer, today’s less than stellar weather is nature’s way of moving things toward the mean.