Thu 10:02 AM Forecast Review — The HREF and HIRESW did well with forecasting yesterday’s frontal passage.
Updated Wed 8 AM highlighted.
A cold front will move through Wednesday between 12:30 and 4 PM. Thunderstorms were originally forecast to develop with this front although the forecast has been for less than 1/4 of an inch of rain to fall.
Fast moving system. Moving through Philadelphia closer to 12:30 to 2 PM (per HIRESW-FV3 shown in 2nd graphic below.) Cloudiness ahead will limit available energy. Strong wind gusts with system. Total rain about 0.25 inches water.
Tonight’s models are just becoming available and the RAP, HRRR and NAM are very unimpressive with the line of storms.
Also just available is the high resolution HIRESW-ARW. It maintains a line of storms about 2 PM with somewhat higher rainfall and higher winds.
HIRESW-ARW MEM2 Model simulated Radar forecast 2 PM Wednesday
The HIRESW-ARW did well last year with thunderstorm forecasts and we’ll see how it does tomorrow.
Another model of interest is the new, soon to be released HIRESW–FV3. It has the showers and thunderstorms coming through an hour earlier, at 1 PM—
It’s been awhile since I posted some bird pictures. All of my bird pictures can be found in this site’s “Birds and Wildlife” category.
Usually I devote a single post to a single bird, but here’s a brief medley of some birds I captured on camera during late 2020 or early 2021 All, except the Pileated Woodpecker, were on our bird feeders or in our backyard.
Northern Flicker (Click on image for a larger view.)
Northern Flicker (Click on image for a larger view.)
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker (Click on image for a larger view.)
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker (Click on image for a larger view.)
Red-Tailed Hawk in the backyard Click on image for a larger view.)
A common, simple but pretty Nuthatch (Click on image for a larger view.)
Pileated Woodpecker seen in Fort Washington State Park in October 2020. Captured (unfortunately) only on an iPhone at a distance.
At the present time, we have a pair of Red-bellied Woodpeckers that have created another home in an old tree in our backyard. I hope to have some decent videos of them soon.
