INTERESTING WEATHER FRIDAY

Fri 09:39 AM Forecast Review — Some fast moving showers occurred before daybreak but no thunderstorms in the immediate PHL area.  Current models have revised the wind gusts down to the 45 mph range around noon.  The NBM now shows temperatures 78- 80º today!
Thu 08:17 PM Update — Today’s models have increased the likelihood of showers and [possibly] thunderstorms ahead of the warm front that will pass through between 3AM and 6AM Friday morning. Indeed, a few showers will move in this evening, especially north and west.
Severe weather parameters are not all that impressive in our area, but we may have our first thunderstorms of this season before or around daybreak.
The actual cold front moves through about noon.  It’s not expected that thunderstorms will accompany the actual cold front.

However, winds will increase during the morning and gusts of 50 mph are possible with the cold front passage around noon. It will be very mild. Temps well into the 70s!

From Wednesday…

Wednesday’s heavy rain was predicted by the models less than 18 hours in advance; prior model forecasts only had about a half inch of rain ( or less) for today. Interestingly, the German ICON was the first to jump on the heavy rain bandwagon.

I’m not sure the models are capturing the full potential for “interesting”weather on Friday. A warm front moves through just before daybreak Friday. Accompanying this front is the potential for thunderstorms in the predawn hours, although the models are currently keeping the strong dynamics to our west. Predawn warm fronts can often surprise.

Friday will be VERY WARM and VERY WINDY. Highs will be into the 70s! Wind gusts may approach 50mph. A weak cold front moves through as early as late morning. The highest winds will accompany the frontal passage. The models currently are downplaying additional thunderstorms. Too early to tell.

If you liked today’s weather, you’ll probably like Sunday’s weather, which is looking quite rainy.

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

The model forecasts for this weekend are surprisingly consistent.

Following a weak cold front passage late Friday, weak high pressure is expected to build in for Saturday.  Saturday currently looks to be mostly sunny and mild with temps in the 60s—

GEFS surface forecast for Saturday at 2 PM  (Click on image for a larger view.)

 

Low pressure moving up through the Ohio valley is expected to bring clouds and rain on Sunday with cooler temps—

GEFS forecast for Sunday at 2 PM  (Click on image for a larger view.)

 

It’s interesting that the models show high agreement for the weekend. We’ll have rain on Wednesday, but the  time frame from Thursday through Friday is a little more uncertain regarding the timing of several frontal passages and the amount of dynamics in our area.  Questions remain about the timing of showers Thursday (if any) and the possibility of thunderstorms late night Thursday  (with a warm front passage) and again late Friday afternoon with a weak cold front.  

Friday looks to be very warm but VERY windy.  I’ll update if things get interesting.