WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

The typical summer weather that has finally come to town will be with us through the end of the week and most of the weekend. High temperatures in the low 90s and dew points moving into the increasingly uncomfortable mid to upper 60s will be the trend through Saturday.

Despite thermodynamic instability from the heat and humidity, the high pressure system aloft and at the surface will prevent much vertical motion, greatly reducing the possibility of thundershowers through Friday.

A weak front will move through on Saturday afternoon.  Mostly sunny skies still expected with some clouds in the afternoon. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but many areas will stay dry, according to the NAM and GFS.

Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny and a bit less humid. The forecast for Sunday is a bit lower confidence. There’s a question about how far south the front will drop.

Here are the EKDMOS temperatures for the next few days. There’s a bit more spread in the temps on Sunday, suggesting a lower confidence forecast .

EKDMOS high temps

 

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

The incredibly wet weather that has been with us for the past week has finally come to an end.  A cold front moved through Friday morning and the winds have changed to a northwesterly direction.

This weekend’s weather will be influenced by high pressure building in behind the departing low pressure system. The weather should be great and compared to this past week, spectacular.

Both Saturday and Sunday will be sunny and near average temperature-wise  (average high 83).  It will be breezy on Saturday with some fair weather cumulus in the afternoon, and less so on Sunday.  High Saturday 81-83  and 82-85 on Sunday, based on the EKDMOS.  (Ensemble Kernal Density Model Output Statistics)

Temperatures turn much warmer on Monday.

In sync with the arrival of summer, the coming week looks to have typical summer weather with high temperatures approaching 90 with increasing humidity. A Bermuda high pressure system will control our weather. Very little in the way of organized low pressure systems or jet stream dips in the medium or extended range GFS model forecasts.

TODAY & THE WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

The heavy rain potential will continue with us today, Thursday, for another 24-30 hours, as deep low pressure and deep moisture, (precipitable water values as high as 2.3 inches), moderate to high shear values and high thermodynamic instability values slowly exits late Friday morning.

Today’s high resolution models show several rounds of heavy rain with some scattered heavy rain early afternoon, then the heaviest rain around 4-6 PM and another heavy round about 10-11 PM.   And yet another Friday morning!  Any sun we get today will add fuel to the fire. The most likely severe activity looks to be north into NYC.

Finally for the weekend…

Saturday and Sunday appear to be fine weather days for the first few days of [astronomical] summer. Sunny skies both days with highs on Saturday 78-81 and Sunday 80-83.

WEEKEND WEATHER UPDATE SUNDAY

Latest models from this morning show only average instability and thermodynamics parameters. Severe thunderstorms are not likely in our neck of the woods, although heavy rain is always possible.
HIREF (High Resolution Ensemble Forecast) about 5 PM

Sunday will have sun, and periods of clouds at times.  This morning’s forecast will be based on the HIREF, an “ensemble model” based on the two versions of the WRF that statistically combines the WRF model versions and includes the NAM-NEST model.

High temperature today about 86 with the increased amount of sunshine.  More humid also, with dew points in the mid 60s.

Very widely scattered showers and thunderstorms about 2 PM.

The main thunderstorm activity moves in from the west about 4:30-6:00 PM and lingers into the evening hours. (See above graphic)