An easy forecast to make for this weekend. High pressure will bring a southwesterly flow of very hot, humid air into our region. Both Saturday and Sunday will be sunny with highs on Saturday 95 and 99-101 on Sunday. ( It’s July and having a heat wave is what happens in the summer!)
On a positive note, the latest model runs have a bit less humidity than previously forecast. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s during the daytime hours. This is a slight improvement over what had previously been predicted by the models; they had been showing dew points in the low 70s during the day. It’s still going to be hot!
GFS Model forecast for Sunday afternoon.
The latest models have highs in the 90s for the next 7+ days!
The models did poorly with yesterday’s forecast; I guess the biggest clue that things weren’t going to go as forecast were the large differences in QPF forecast by the NAM and GFS. The temperatures remained about 69 instead of the forecast 81; essentially, the warm front never moved north as had been forecast.
I am somewhat more confident about today’s forecast, at least based on the short range models (GFS LAMPS; NAM-based HRRR). Both show a mix of clouds and some sun due to an occluded front that has stalled to our west.
Current Frontal Positions at 8 AM Sunday.
Both models currently show a moderate chance of thunderstorms moving in between 5PM and 8 PM, with highest probability about 7 PM. Still, the overall chance is only about 50%, so it’s possible that not all areas will get the showers and storms today.
High temperatures 87 with dew points in the somewhat uncomfortable upper 60s.
