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Saturday AM Update
Low level moisture that was forecast in the form of fog and low clouds has remained this Saturday morning. We should see a gradual brightening of skies through the morning and the afternoon. It’s a tough call if the grey skies will totally dissipate today, but the model cloud algorithms say it will.

Sunday looks to become cloudy in the afternoon.

Low pressure will slowly depart overnight. Showers should end before daybreak Saturday.

The models, particularly the GFS, maintains significant low level moisture for the morning and at times during the afternoon on Saturday.  So, while the model cloud algorithms have the clouds dissipating slowly in the morning, it’s possible we may see lingering low level clouds into the afternoon. High temperatures between 65 and 67, depending upon the cloud cover. Winds will be light from the W-NW

Sunday will start sunny and it will be milder.  Clouds move in during the afternoon. High 68.  Winds light, but become southerly and increasingly gusty in the later afternoon.


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Sunday Update
The forecast posted below on Friday evening remains on target. Rain will taper off and end between 2-4 PM from west to east. The cold front has already moved through about 11 AM this morning.

NBM Wind forecast- Grid Point Citizens Bank Park

Temperatures for the Phillies game tonight will start near 50º and fall to near 40º by the end of the game. Winds NW 15 mph with gusts over 30.

Saturday Morning Update
Forecast remains on track. High and middle clouds through the day. Winds become a bit gusty in the afternoon.

The daily high temperatures are expected to be reached about 3:45 PM on Saturday- HRRR Forecast

from Friday evening…

A diffuse warm front that gave us the [unpredicted] light showers today will slowly move north by Saturday afternoon. (The models didn’t pick up on this until just a few hours before the showers started.)

Update -Tonight’s NAM shows high temperatures 73-77 degrees for Saturday.

For Saturday- A southeasterly flow of warm air will bring unseasonably warm temperatures, along with enough mid and high level moisture aloft to create high and mid-level cloudiness.  High temperatures are forecast in the 70-73º F range for the Philadelphia area, despite this cloud cover layer which may at times be significant during the day.  Winds light from the southeast in the morning, shifting to the south and increasing somewhat after the warm front passes in the early afternoon.

Winds with gust increase in the afternoon, southeast—> south
[A cold front approaches later on Saturday night into Sunday morning.  The cold front is expected to bring showers to our area between 9 AM and 3 PM on Sunday as it moves through.   It will be cloudy for much of the day, possibly clearing late in the afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the timing of the showers ending, as low pressure developing along the front may cause the light showers to linger.  Total rainfall is currently expected to be less than 0.20 inches water.

High temperatures will be early in the day Sunday, before the frontal passage and will fall through the 50s during the afternoon, reaching the 40s by evening and near freezing by Monday morning.


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The statistical models are still showing a high in the low to mid 70s on Saturday! However, it doesn’t look like it will be all that sunny, as the GFS is showing considerable mid and high level cloudiness for Saturday.

On Sunday, a cold front moves through during the morning.  The actual front moves through about 7-9 AM accompanied by showers.  There is considerable spread with how quickly (or slowly as the case appears) that showers and clouds will move out after the frontal passage.

High Resolution GFS Forecast 9 AM Sunday- (Shading is Precipitation Rate)

Some of the models are showing low pressure developing along the front to our south, keeping considerable clouds in our area and maintaining the chance of showers, especially in NJ on Sunday.  Temperatures drop into the 50s behind the front.

It’s a few days away and I’ll have a better handle with my regular Friday evening forecast.


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This first full week of Spring will have temperatures move from near to below average highs on Tuesday into the warm range by Friday and Saturday.

The statistical model based on the GFS ensemble,  (EKDMOS) shows the possible range of high temperatures this coming week:

EKDMOS (Ensemble Kernal Density Model Output Statistics)

So it’s possible that we could see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.  (Notice that the “spread” between possible high temperatures is quite large by 3/30.)

The average low is 38 and average high is 57 for Philadelphia this week.


Storm Forecasts & Other Things "up in the air".