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Sunday Forecast Update

Update Sun 05/07 @ 9:38 AM — Very light showers are forecast to move in between 6 and 8 PM. Any showers will be very light. Several models have the showers bypassing the immediate PHL area, going to the north and south of us. Highs today: 76º Blue Bell, 77º Philadelphia ( ± 1º)

Update Sat 5/06 @ 8:36 PM — Not much change in my forecast from Friday.
Sunshine early, then sunshine through high clouds during the late morning and early afternoon. Clouds thicken between 3-5 PM. Chance of light showers moving in between 6 PM and 8 PM, earlier far west. High 74-76°.

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Previously Posted Fri 6:45 PM —


Early morning cloudiness gives way to sunny skies.

High temperature 68.9º sd 1.4º ( NBM model location Blue Bell, PA)


Sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Light showers wait until late evening

High temperature 74.7º sd 1.6º ( NBM model location Blue Bell, PA)


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Friday and Weekend Outlook
Fri 05:27 PM Forecast Review — Not as much shower activity as forecast. Heavier activity was further east—

Update Fri 05/05 @ 11:13 AM — Despite the sunshine this morning, an upper air disturbance will bring scattered showers later this afternoon—

Satellite Water Vapor shows upper air disturbance to move through later Friday afternoon. (Click on image for a larger view.)

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The big upcoming change will be the transition to an upper level ridge. Temperatures will move back towards the low 70s by the weekend—

NAEFS Max Temperature forecast for late Saturday. Also visible are the 250 mb (jet stream level) contours showing the ridge that will slowly move towards us. Temperatures near 70 on Saturday and above 70 on Sunday are expected.

Thursday will be similar to today, Wednesday, although there should be noticeably fewer scattered sprinkles and perhaps some more breaks of sun.

A similar forecast for Friday.

The weekend looks to be dry with more sun!


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Wednesday Update -Continued Blocked Pattern

Update Wed 05/03 @ 9:37 AM —The blocked pattern will slowly transform into another blocked pattern over the weekend. By the weekend, our part of the country will be under more of an upper ridge than the current upper low. Until that time we’ll continue with unsettled weather: clouds, some sun, scattered showers, and cool temperatures.

Today, Wednesday, we’ll likely have the most widespread shower activity, but both Thursday and Friday may have a few late afternoon showers in some areas.

Here’s what things look like by Sunday

NAEFS forecast for Sunday at 2 PM. The red line, (540 thickness line) captures the general configuration of the jet stream. Notice the extreme extent into northern Canada indicative of a blocked pattern. The Northeastern US will now be under more of the upper ridge. The weather should become drier and milder. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Tuesday – Continued Unsettled Weather

Update Tue 05/02 @ 8:16 AM — The upper air low has moved to north of NY State and it is expected to precess and end up over our area Wednesday and Thursday.

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Previously Posted Mon 12:00 PM —

This Week’s Weather Overview

The blocked pattern will slowly loosen over the next several days. The upper low still over the Great Lakes will continue to rotate disturbances over our area, giving us periods of clouds and some showers intermixed with some sun.

Water Vapor Satellite image Monday morning shows the low pressure system still over the Great Lakes, rotating disturbances over our area. This may continue through Thursday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Weather… and Other Things 'Up in the Air'

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