Followup and Update on Irma

It appears that the models have been incredibly poor predicting the track of hurricane Irma in the long term.  Consistency in predicting an east coast hit has luckily faded over the weekend.  Each successive model run has had Irma take a more southerly track.

So the concern about affecting Philadelphia and the Jersey Shore has disappeared.

Last night’s models now have Irma making the same general west then north motion, but much further south, south of Florida.   What a change! The only consistent part of the predicted track is a sharp right turn, this time affecting much of Florida.  Based on the predictions so far, it’s hard to hang one’s hat on anything right now.

Forecast Update

Rain should end between 7-9 am on Sunday and clouds will break to sunshine by afternoon.  High temp about 74.

Of continued interest is hurricane Irma.  Several models show it moving up the coast and coming inland over the Delmarva area and then over Philadelphia next Sunday evening as a category 3, possibly a category 4 storm . This potential scenario is over a week away, but the situation bears watching.  Changes in the predicted track are likely, so stay tuned.

Sunday AM Update: Last night’s models have changed the track to hit North Carolina-Virginia.  Expect more changes.  Of concern is that this storm does not look like it will go out to sea.  

Updated  multi-model Forecast :

Updated 9/3/17 Multi-model and Statistical Ensemble forecast Tracks

 

Previous Model Forecasts.

Previous (9/2/17)  GFS forecast for Sunday evening, Sept 10th
Multi model Forecasts

Labor Day Weekend Weather Forecast

The highly diminished remnants of Hurricane Harvey will bring showers and rain to the Philadelphia area on Saturday.  Currently the GFS are only showing about 0.20 inches of rain for the daytime on Saturday, but the NAM shows considerably higher amounts during the mid afternoon.  (Heavier rain is expected further south into Delaware during the day on Saturday.)  High only 67.

The latest models have decreased the rain QPF  for  Saturday night.

For Sunday, skies clear slowly with some sun and clouds although the models still show a chance of a sprinkle late afternoon.  High 77.

Monday will be very nice with sunny skies. High 82

Of interest is a new hurricane, IRMA, which may pose a threat to the New Jersey Shore sometime during or likely after next weekend. (Sept 11 timeframe.)   Way too early to be sure about anything with this storm.  The models have changed many times over the past few days regarding the timing.  It does look like IRMA will be a major hurricane.

Storm Forecasts & Other Things "up in the air".

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