A wet scenario will setup for this weekend. It’s a setup we’ve seen several times this summer season— an upper low pressure system is expected to close off to our west and a stream of moist unstable air will flow into our region.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday evening, but the models have increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the daytime hours of Saturday into Saturday evening. Some of the showers could be heavy.

The skies will be mostly cloudy on Saturday, although some breaks or brightening skies are possible, especially mid-day hours. Highs about 81 with high humidity.

A similar situation is expected for Sunday, although the shower activity is expected to be lower than Saturday. Brighter skies and some sunny breaks possible on Sunday, but widely scattered showers possible any time, especially later in the afternoon.  High again about 81,

Regarding forecast confidence, the GFS, ECMWF and the NBM are in good agreement. The NAM is significantly less robust with the shower coverage, especially for Sunday.  I’ll update later.

A weak front will move through over the night time hours Friday into Saturday.  Showers are expected tonight, with heavy showers just before daybreak Saturday.

The unsettled weather may linger into Saturday morning and clearing skies will be slow but brightening skies and some eventual sunshine should start by 10-11 AM. (Later, in areas east in New Jersey where showers may also linger.)

By afternoon, Saturday will become hot and humid with highs near 89 and dew points remaining uncomfortable in the low 70s.

Somewhat drier but hot air moves in from the west for Sunday.

Sunday will be sunny, hot and humid with highs near 92 and dew points still high in the upper 60s.