The latest NAM model data has become available. Light scattered showers are forecast for Sunday, especially for the late morning and early afternoon hours. QPF values are low for these early showers (0.05 inches)
It will be cloudy and increasingly windy. There may be some brightening skies briefly late afternoon. High 70-72 reached later in the afternoon.
Winds increase at night. A strong cold front moves through after midnight. Heavy rain, thunderstorms and very strong winds will accompany this front.
Tonight’s NAM just available has slow clearing with widely scattered sprinkles into mid morning Saturday. Then clearing in the afternoon.
For Sunday, the rain is further delayed into evening. Much of the daytime dry on Sunday according to the NAM. Extremely windy late Sunday night.
The model forecasts have changed for this weekend, especially for Sunday.
But, let me start with Saturday’s forecast:
The warm front that is moving through tonight (Fri) will bring heavy rain during the nighttime hours. The models have been consistent with the rain ending between 6 and 8 AM Saturday. There will be slow clearing by late morning and some sun is expected during Saturday afternoon. Winds will be light. High temp 74-76, but the EKDMOS has us near 80!
The big change is Sunday’s forecast, where the models (NAM, GFS) are delaying the heavy rain until late in the afternoon and Sunday evening/night.
There’s uncertainty whether there will be some light widely scattered showers earlier in the day. The statistical models (MOS) have a low chance of any precip during much of the daytime hours, however the NAM has some light, widely sprinkles/showers in the morning and afternoon.
It will be windy on Sunday. With less sun, it will be cooler with a high of 72, still above average for the middle of April.
Today’s NAM high resolution model shows showers ending about 8 AM Saturday with slow clearing and some sunshine likely by the late morning and afternoon. No showers on Saturday for us. High mid 70s!
Sunday has rain starting early to mid-afternoon. I’ll update Fri evening.
What had appeared to be a clearcut forecast for the weekend is now looking a little more uncertain.
A warm front moves through Friday night with rain. The rain is expected to end sometime early Saturday morning, Low clouds are slow to break, although some brightening skies and partial clearing is possible Saturday afternoon. High 75. However some statistical models maintain a chance of light sprinkles in the afternoon.
Less clear is the amount of dry weather on Sunday. The morning period is the most likely time for dry weather, but there is an increasing likelihood of rain in the afternoon. Heavy rain at night.
Will take another shot at the forecast Friday evening.
I posted this weekend outlook Tues morning and things have already changed regarding timing. The front that moves through Friday may linger just to our south to allow some instability showers on Saturday afternoon.
The large low pressure system forecast to bring rain for Sunday may move in later in the day, keeping Sunday dry for much of the day.
It’s April, and that’s where we get the expression, “April showers brings May flowers.”
This coming weekend, or at least Saturday, appears to be sandwiched between two low pressure systems— one Friday afternoon/night and another stronger low pressure system on Sunday.
Timing can change this far out in the forecast period, but the models have been fairly consistent with these two systems.
It appears that Saturday will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperature possibilities show 70s for Saturday, but the statistical spread in the EKDMOS (Ensemble Kernal Density Model Output Statistics) is quite large, indicating uncertainty in the forecast.
EKDMOS for this week’s temperatures
For Sunday, it appears we’ll be having rain. Notice the lower spread in the temperatures suggests greater certainty in the temp forecast and weather for Sunday’s weather.
