Today will be a delightful sunny day with mild temps. High temps 65-67º. Today is a great time to get out an exercise.
The rest of the week will be unsettled as a mild temperature upper air ridge pattern changes to a chillier cyclonic upper trough pattern. Several disturbances will move through from Tuesday through Friday during this transition.
The first will be late Tuesday. The blue arrows show the upper air ridge contour and flow direction. The red arrow shows the path of the first and second disturbances along the edge of this ridge —
GEFS Tuesday Forecast showing Upper Ridge and area of moisture/vorticity moving down along the ridge
By Wednesday, the first disturbance has developed a surface low over us —
GEFS Wednesday Forecast
By Friday, the upper ridge from earlier in the week has been replaced by an upper trough (blue arrows) and cooler weather—
Tonight’s models show sky conditions on Sunday to be similar to Saturday — considerable clouds much of the time, but breaks of sunshine and bright spots also possible. One version of the HIRESW has a lot more sunshine especially in the afternoon.
The NAM NEST has some fog early morning as well. Brief light sprinkles very widely scattered still a possibility.
Revised at 10:35 AM: The latest models just becoming available. The NAM-NEST and HIRESW have significant clouds with widely scattered light drizzle through about 3 PM. Then skies begin to clear with some sunshine.
That’s the weird thing about model forecasts. Last night, the HIRESW models looked better about the cloud cover for today. But the NAM-NEST accurately predicted the light drizzle we’re having now.
Strangely, the NAM-NEST had predicted more sun and much less cloudiness.
1 AM model run- NAM NEST Forecast for 10AM Saturday showing light drizzle and clouds (white)
Last night, I combined the HIRESW models and the NAM-NEST, and I got rid of the drizzle in the forecast. It didn’t work out!
The new NAM-NEST and HIRESW models will be available about 10:15 and 10:30 AM. I’ll update after they become available.
