Both the GFS and NAM models show some light snow tonight. A coating to about an inch or maybe two, especially north of Philadelphia.
Unlike the “blizzard”, this time the GFS has more QPF than the NAM, which suggests a more likely scenario.
I’m keeping an eye on the Sunday evening time frame. We are flying back to PHL during this period and I’m hoping the expected snow holds off until later in the evening Sunday. There’s uncertainty about the degree of development in this upcoming storm, but there could be several inches by Monday morning.
I know what the official NWS forecast is for Philadelphia, but people need to know that there are EXTREME differences between the GFS and NAM models. When I’ve seen this before, it means the storm can fizzle out for our area.
While the NWS is warning of high snow totals for PHL, (and the NAM supports this), the more reliable GFS has the bulk of the storm missing Philadelphia. If the GFS is correct, we only get a few inches of snow here in PHL.
You’ve heard the real story here. Let’s see what happens.
I’m away but still looking at the weather in Philadelphia.
I really think PHL will miss much of the heavy snowfall. The GFS has much of the coastal storm development further east and north , so 4-7 inches looks more likely for our area. (The NAM has higher amounts, but it has been overstating preciptation amounts all winter.)