Thursday 6:40 AM Update— All the models have clear skies by Saturday morning.
A strong cold front with a possible coastal low will move through Friday and clear the coastline by Saturday morning. Following the rain on Friday, the weekend looks good.
The Canadian model is somewhat faster with the front moving through than the GFS and NBM (model blend). Even the models that show a slower movement of the front have the clouds clearing by mid morning Saturday.
The latest SREF model prolongs the rain and has slower clearing on Saturday. So a bit more uncertainty about Saturday’s forecast.
Here’s the current Canadian CMC Global model forecast for Saturday morning showing a high pressure building in from the northwest—
CMC GDPS forecast Saturday 5 AM (Click on image for a larger view.)
Saturday should be mostly sunny and windy in the morning. High temps near 57º, so it will be somewhat cool, especially with the windy conditions.
Sunday should be sunny, milder and less windy with high temps in the low 60s.
We’ll see if things progress as currently forecast.
The models over-predicted the rain totals by about 1-1.5 inches.
The latest Model Blend (NBM) rain forecast for tonight through Monday night for the Philadelphia area showing 2.0 – 3.5 inches of rain, especially east into NJ—
NBM accumulated rain forecast (Click on image for a larger view.)
Heaviest rain will be Monday morning, but rain should persist through the day into the evening. Wind gusts 35-40 mph possible.
The models are again holding back the rain until late afternoon.
Based on the latest model runs, very light scattered sprinkles are possible 3-5 PM today in the immediate Philadelphia area, but the main area of rain arrives between 5-7 PM, moving up from south.
