A low pressure system will move in Wednesday afternoon with moderate rain (~1 “) and a strong cold front will move through later Wednesday night with the jet stream plunging southward from a push of cold air—
Canadian GEM Regional model forecast 10 PM Thursday. Red line is the 1000-500mb thickness line, a rough approximation for the jet position and often considered the ‘rain-snow line’. (Click on image for a larger view.)
This very strong cold front may bring some ‘interesting weather’ as it moves through and I’ll be keeping an eye on it.
Much colder temperatures later Thursday through early Saturday. We may even see some snow flurries Thursday night. Cold, windy conditions Thursday through Friday! High temperatures in the low to mid 40s Friday and temps may fall into the upper 20s Friday night. Still chilly on Saturday, although the afternoon should warm up a bit more.
Things moderate further on Easter Sunday and next week looks milder and more tranquil.
Sun 08:35 PM Forecast Review — The thunderstorms came through close to schedule about 6:45 PM . This afternoon’s models only showed CAPE values of 580 joules/kg, not the 1300 predicted by yesterday’s HRRR. So storms were typical, not severe.
from yesterday …
The forecast is on track with rain on Sunday, starting between 6 AM and 8 AM.
Most models have the rain becoming more episodic in the afternoon, with lines of showers moving through with breaks in the rain . Heaviest rain is now expected west of the Philadelphia area. QPF about 0.6 inches for Blue Bell. It will become WINDY. High near 68º
A final line of showers and thunderstorms appears to be timed between 5-7 PM in the immediate PHL area with the cold front passage. Available thermodynamic energy (“CAPE”) values may exceed 1300 joules/kg which could cause some strong storms from Philadephia and eastward.
