Category Archives: Weather Updates

Weather Updates

THURSDAY RAIN UPDATE

Thursday 6:45 AM Update— Last night’s 2AM (06z) GFS still maintains the same 2-3” rainfall as previously posted. Rain begins to taper to lighter showers between 8-9 PM tonight.
Wednesday 10PM Update— Tonight’s models just becoming available have delayed the heavy rain onset to just after daybreak and have shifted the heaviest rain southward. Reduce the rain totals posted below by about 1 inch less than the amounts, shown except for Delaware.

Based on the latest GFS model, here’s the current total rain forecast expected from our encounter with the remnants of Zeta on Thursday—

GFS accumulated Rain Forecast  by Friday late morning.  (Click on image for a larger view.)

Rain will start between midnight and daybreak Thursday.  The heaviest rain will occur in the afternoon, tapering after 8 PM.  Highest wind gusts about 5 PM into early evening, about 30-35 mph.

Showers will continue into Friday morning or early afternoon as colder temperatures move in for Friday night, as discussed in yesterday’s post.

Weather Updates

ZETA REMNANTS WEATHER UPDATE

Despite the complexity of the weather scenario regarding the remnants of Hurricane Zeta moving through our area, the models continue to show  similarity in timing, and have the usual range of rainfall amounts.   In general, the models show the heaviest rain from Philadelphia south into Maryland and Delaware.

GEFS Accumulated Rain The GEFS has 2.5-3.0″  (Click on image for a larger view.)

This will primarily be heavy rain event for us, although some gusty winds (> 30 mph) are expected late Thursday evening into early Friday morning.

Here’s the range of expected total rainfall, with amounts in the 2-3.5″ (European) ECMWF,  2.0-2.6″ (Canadian GEM), German ICON 2.0- 2.5″.

The GFS and GEFS show 2.5-3.0″  of rain.

For some reason, the Model Blend (NBM) is  in the lower range of 1.25″.

Rain starts after midnight Wednesday and continues through Thursday.  Some lingering showers possible on Friday.

Temperatures near or below freezing are expected Friday night.