The heavier snow came in  this evening.  Only the model runs within the past  18-24 hours really captured the somewhat correct QPF values and only early this morning did the models show the temperatures being above freezing in the late afternoon.

So this snow went from a “winter storm warning” to an “inch or so, mostly on grassy surfaces”.

Look for the infamous “polar vortex” to return for Valentine’s Day.

The 1 AM runs of the GFS and NAM continue the downward trend in QPF.   The NAM now has a total QPF of 0.15 inches water and the GFS 0.23, both now having the snow fall during afternoon in to early evening.   Yesterday’s GFS was really off with timing and the NAM really overestimated the QPF, something it does often.

Considering the trends, this is looking like a 1, maybe 2 inch snow.  And if the diminishing QPF trend continues, it could be even less.   (There will still be s few snow showers this morning, but a coating is the most expected. ).    Still a low confidence forecast.

6:45 AM: One more thing…just noticed that the NAM surface temperatures are trending warmer.  So even if the QPF verifies, there may not be much accumulation due to melting.   So now we’re down to an inch or less.