As mentioned on Thursday, a complex scenario influences our weather today, but the models did impressively well with many of the major features.
With this complexity, there are some changes in today’s forecast- According to the HRRR and GFS-LAMPS models, it appears that rain will linger in the immediate PHL area until about 10 AM. The HRRR shows some showers reappearing about noon and lasting a few more hours. According to the LAMPS forecast, we won’t see any bright skies or sun until late afternoon, after 4 PM (if at all.)
As suspected, temperatures will be colder than previously forecast, with highs only about 54.
This morning’s NAM-based HRRR and the GFS-based LAMPS forecast show somewhat different predictions for today (Saturday).
Both have kept an ongoing chance of light precip during the day, but much less than yesterday. Precip chances have reduced from 70% to just under 50% for a six hour period.
The HRRR keeps the rain to our east / offshore and to our west for much of day until about 5 PM. The GFS LAMPS maintains an ongoing hourly chance of over 20%, which generally is on the moderate side.
I like the HRRR, so to be optimistic, I think a cloudy, damp but relatively shower-free forecast is a reasonable bet for much of today. I guess we’ll see.
Latest short-range HRRR and LAMPS forecasts continue with a good chance of light showers and drizzle Saturday. The GFS based LAMPS has a higher chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon hours.
As for Hurricane Matthew , it has strengthened to a strong category 4 storm and the track and recent intensification has deviated somewhat from the model predictions.
This continues to be a storm that needs to be watched for potential impact on the east coast and possibly our area the end of next week.
