My uncertainty last night with today’s forecast is manifest this morning, as we have an area of showers that is almost stationary and is oriented along the upper air jet flow vorticity at 300mb. This feature could be persistent today and the NAM model (often wrong lately) has been correct with this forecast so far. Indeed, the NAM predicts even heavier showers for the afternoon today.
Some areas today won’t see much if any rain, but if you’re currently getting some rain, this area of rain may be persistent and slow to move.
After a string of almost perfect weekend weather this summer, today’s less than stellar weather is nature’s way of moving things toward the mean.
It was supposed to be a dry frontal passage this morning, but that hasn’t panned out. The models show as little as a 4% chance of showers this morning, but the short range models (GFS-LAMP) have increased the chances s bit. Nonetheless, radar shows that an area of fast-moving showers is passing through.
Interestingly, the NAM model was updated and enhanced this past Tuesday, but I see little improvement in the precipitation forecasts since then.
For the balance of the day, broken clouds, showers early morning , then clearing in the mid-afternoon.