Category Archives: Weather Updates

Labor Day Weather Update

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Cumulonimbus clouds build early yesterday afternoon.
Cumulonimbus clouds build early yesterday afternoon.

The sun should break through later this morning.  Temps should rise into the high 80s with dewpoints near  69 or 70.

A very summer-like day for the first day of September.

A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon– the NAM based HRRR predicts these storms to be much more widely scattered and less organized than yesterday’s storms.

Most areas may not see any rain today.

Philly Forecast Update

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My uncertainty last night with today’s forecast is manifest this morning, as we have an area of showers that is almost stationary and is oriented along the upper air jet flow vorticity at 300mb. This feature could be persistent today and the NAM model (often wrong lately) has been correct with this forecast so far. Indeed, the NAM predicts even heavier showers for the afternoon today.

Some areas today won’t see much if any rain, but if you’re currently getting some rain, this area of rain may be persistent and slow to move.

After a string of almost perfect weekend weather this summer, today’s less than stellar weather is nature’s way of moving things toward the mean.

Poor Model Forecast

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It was supposed to be a dry frontal passage this morning, but that hasn’t panned out.   The models show as little as a 4% chance of showers this morning, but the short range models (GFS-LAMP) have increased the chances s bit.  Nonetheless, radar shows that an area of fast-moving showers is passing through.

NEXRAD Radar PHL 9:25 AM today
NEXRAD Radar PHL 9:25 AM today

Interestingly, the NAM model was updated and enhanced this past Tuesday, but I see little improvement in the precipitation forecasts since then.

For the balance of the day, broken clouds, showers early morning , then clearing in the mid-afternoon.

Philly Weather Update

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The NAM model has again over-estimated the precipitation for this weekend and the GFS has backed off on the heavy rains as well.

Sat 8/2: A mix of clouds and maybe some sun at times. More humid. Chance of scattered showers during the afternoon and more likely during the evening. High 81.

Sun 8/3: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance of widely scattered showers. Humid. High 82.