A very serious situation exists for the Caribbean, as Hurricane Matthew has intensified into a Category 4 storm.
As mentioned over a week ago, this storm formation has been relatively well-predicted by the models for almost two weeks, which is very impressive. When it comes to hurricanes, details such as speed and direction of movement have enough variations; when incorporated in the global forecast models, it’s creates havoc with a dependable deterministic forecast.
The blocked pattern in the northern Atlantic appears to be re-establishing itself, which would cause Matthew to veer towards the US. east coast. The potential of a blocking setup was depicted by the GFS model for well over a week.
That said, except for intensification, the storm’s general path has been relatively close to the one predicted, except the timing has been slower by several days. The current GFS takes the storm into the SE coastline of the US later this week and it might affect us next Saturday. Stay tuned.
Latest short-range HRRR and LAMPS forecasts continue with a good chance of light showers and drizzle Saturday. The GFS based LAMPS has a higher chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon hours.
As for Hurricane Matthew , it has strengthened to a strong category 4 storm and the track and recent intensification has deviated somewhat from the model predictions.
This continues to be a storm that needs to be watched for potential impact on the east coast and possibly our area the end of next week.
Tropical storm Matthew is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours. Long range statical “ensemble” models continue to show the storm moving up the North Carolina coast next Wednesday -Thursday and then possibly to the NJ coastline Friday, although the current trend is to start motion eastward into the Atlantic, minimizing effects here.
What is fascinating: the long range models have consistently showed a hurricane developing with this approximate track for more than a week.
With a closed low affecting our weather now and a strong tropical system developing, expect weather forecasts to be less reliable and changeable over the next week.
