Last night’s models have moved the track a bit to the west, possibly making landfall near Naples FL and then moving up through west-of-center of the state.   The storm is expected to hit Florida as a Category 4.   The consensus track (white) on the graphic below is the current most likely track.  The National Hurricane Center’s track is a bit east of this line.

Here’s the latest model tracks for Irma, showing the five best models for hurricanes.  The white line is the consensus or average path through Monday afternoon.