Tropical storm Matthew is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours.  Long range statical “ensemble” models continue to show the storm moving up the North Carolina coast next Wednesday -Thursday and then  possibly to the NJ coastline Friday, although the current trend is to start motion eastward into the Atlantic, minimizing effects here.

What is fascinating: the long range models have consistently showed a hurricane developing with this approximate track for more than a week.

With a closed low affecting our weather now and a strong tropical system developing, expect weather forecasts to be less reliable and changeable over the next week.