It appears that the models have been incredibly poor predicting the track of hurricane Irma in the long term. Consistency in predicting an east coast hit has luckily faded over the weekend. Each successive model run has had Irma take a more southerly track.
So the concern about affecting Philadelphia and the Jersey Shore has disappeared.
Last night’s models now have Irma making the same general west then north motion, but much further south, south of Florida. What a change! The only consistent part of the predicted track is a sharp right turn, this time affecting much of Florida. Based on the predictions so far, it’s hard to hang one’s hat on anything right now.
As mentioned this morning, Matthew does not appear to pose a threat to the mid Atlantic area in the near term.
The trend for Florida is more ominous. The latest GFS and Navy NAVGEM model, along with specific short range hurricane models, now have the storm moving up into Florida instead of staying off the coast. This is a serious situation. Please check the National Hurricane Center for more updates on this storm.
The latest computer models show a more westward track for Hurricane Matthew, either hugging the coast of Florida, or with the Navy NAVGEM model, actually moving over Florida.
The models also show a slower progression of the storm northward, very bad for the US SE coastline and Florida, but potentially sparing our area from the storm.
With a slower moving storm, an upper air trough and cold front may sweep this out to sea after the storm passes the outer banks of NC. Timing of both features will be everything.
Another tropical storm, Nicole, has formed east of Hurricane Matthew. This will increase the challenge and complexity of the computer modeling of Matthew.
