Category Archives: Tropical Storm Outlooks


The Tropical Prediction Center has moved the expected track of hurricane Joaquin westward and has delayed the arrival of the storm (then expected to be a tropical storm) until Monday in our area.

The majority of the experimental tropical models, though, keep the track even more westward and southward, into the Carolinas and then Kentucky.  Stay tuned.

Joaquin Possible Threat to our area

The computer models continue to show the path of hurricane Joaquin to curve towards the eastern US coastline, with most models showing the storm entering the coastline anywhere from the Carolinas to Delaware and even one showing New Jersey.

Current experimental models estimate that Joaquin could be come a Category II storm, with some models showing Category III status.

The Navy NAVGEMS model, (formerly the NOGAPS)  still has the storm taking a southern track around the North Carolina with much of the energy and rain missing our area.   The latest GFS model has joined the NAVGEMS with this track.   These things change; too early to hang one’s hat on this.

Regardless of the exact path, rain and wind associated with Joaquin will affect our PHL area sometime over the weekend.