Posted Wednesday 01/22/25 @ 9:45 AM — One can always tell when there’s not much happening weather-wise; there’s a focus on the temperatures. Albeit, these are somewhat uncommon temperatures for our area and more so, the southern Gulf states. (It’s still the Gulf of Mexico in my book.)
Yes, it’s cold out there—my consumer-grade weather station recorded a low of 4º this morning.
Continued cold weather is expected through Saturday with a gradual warmup.
For the Eagles game on Sunday, here’s the current ECMWF-AI forecast—
00zECMWF-AIFS forecast temperatures for Sunday at 1 PM. It should be noted that the model blend (my usual go-to model for temperatures) is only forecasting a high of 41º ± 1.6º (Click on image for a larger view.)
The trend gets better by next Wednesday—
00z ECMWF-AIFS temperatures for next Wednesday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Again, I’m posting the ECMWF-AIFS. My usual go-to model for temperatures is the model blend (NBM).
Most if not all of the storm tracks are to our south this week.
Posted Tuesday 01/21/25 @ 11:36 AM — The cloudiness forecast for today are still on the way, according to several models. We’ll likely see cloudiness by 2 PM, especially areas from the city southward.
Of interest are some disturbances in the jet flow just to our south. The latest Canadian and ECMWF show some light snow (flurries to coating) in Cape May and surrounding areas later this evening. There’s even the chance of some flurries here in the city, especially areas southward.
WV image 11:30 AM showing embedded disturbances expected to pass mainly to our south, but the northern fringe will brush southern areas this evening. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Posted Monday 01/20/25 @ 6:08 PM — One more thing. An very fast jet stream will be overhead tomorrow (225 mph winds!) with embedded areas of vorticity (disturbances). The GFS is forecasting quite cloudy skies tomorrow, Tuesday.
Previously Posted Mon @ 4:59 PM — The extreme cold weather expected this week has been well-advertised. High temperatures in the teens and lows in the single digits.
Here’s the current water vapor image—
Current satellite water vapor image with superimposed RAP model 500-1000 mb thickness lines (yellow), jet level wind streamlines (orange contour-arrows) potential vorticity (fine violet contours) and superimposed MRMS radar. Large High pressure and deep cold. (Click on image for a larger view.)
I don’t know about you, but I find it a bit confusing and misleading when the TV weather people flip back and forth between wind chills and actual temperatures. The words “conjured sensationalism” come to my mind.
With the large cold high pressure over us, any storm development appears to be suppressed to our south. A low pressure system north of the Great Lakes Thursday and an associated cold front will bring some clouds at times later in the week. More cold pressure expected to reinforce this cold weather into the weekend.
NAEFS forecast for Thursday. Low pressure will move off the southeast coast is expected to move away from us as more high pressure builds in. (Click on image for a larger view.)
There may be a few upper air disturbances that move through during the week, but nothing stands out right now.
A note for those of you who are visiting this site from X. Due to its highly unbalanced political environment, I’ve considerably cut back auto-posting there. To receive all forecast postings, I recommend following me on mastodon.social or bluesky.social
Posted Friday 01/17/25 @ 9:49 AM — This update is a bit delayed to allow me to review some of this morning’s models. Here are the general trends—
The NAM has finally joined the other models in forecasting some snow, but it’s snow totals are still low compared to the other models: in the 1-2″ range.
The GFS continues to forecast a moderate snowfall (see graphic below)
The ECMWF continues to forecast snowfall less than the GFS
The Canadian continues to forecast a western track, heavier on precipitation with more rain than snow.
Here’s the latest GFS snow accumulation based on its built-in snow algorithm—
06z GFS forecast snow accumulation by late Sunday evening (Click on image for a larger view.)
I’m going to leave the heavy-lifting to the model blend (NBM). Here’s its forecast based on all-snow with an 11:1 snow ratio—
13z NBM snow forecast based on all-snow and an 11:1 snow water ratio (Click on image for a larger view.)
The storm looks to be a fast mover, with snow starting as early as mid to late Sunday morning. The Eagles (and more so the Chargers) will have an additional challenge.
Updates later this afternoon after the latest GFS becomes available (after 5:20 PM) with my regular “Weekend Weather Forecast”
Forecast Update and Sunday Outlook
Posted Thursday 01/16/25 @ 6:04 PM — As mentioned below, the latest GFS has become available and it’s forecasting a significant snow storm for us on Sunday. There’s still much uncertainty with this storm but I wanted to share with you the latest GFS forecast snow accumulation—
Today’s 18z GFS snow accumulation forecast for Sunday’s afternoon and night storm (Click on image for a larger view.)
To be balanced, here’s the latest NAM which has the storm totally missing us—
Today’s 18z NAM forecast for 10 PM Sunday. The storm moves off to our east missing us. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Posted Thursday 01/16/25 @ 5:17 PM — The light snow we’ve been having started a bit earlier than forecast and the coverage is a more widespread than forecast yesterday. The snow should be ending between 10 PM and midnight.
Current Radar/MRMS—
~5 PM Radar/MRMS with superimposed RAP model 700 mb wind streams and vertical motion (Omega) (Click on image for a larger view.)
Milder temperatures on Friday will give way to some very light showers on Saturday.
A potential snowfall is still in the cards for Sunday. There’s still a wide range of forecast tracks with the Canadian model showing the most inland (warmer- more rain, less snow) and the ECMWF showing a colder, easterly track with little rain, mostly snow but light accumulations.
Of interest is the NAM which has the storm moving easterly, away from us. giving us neither rain nor snow!
If the model consensus of the model blend is correct, the light snow may start as early as the late morning on Sunday.
Here’s the latest model blend forecast snow accumulation by Monday morning.
NBM (model blend) snow accumulation based on a 12:1 snow water ratio. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The latest GFS just became available as I write this and it is forecasting amounts similar to the above model graphic, although if the GFS is correct, we might see as much as 3-5 inches of snow.
Stay tuned.
A note for those of you who are visiting this site from X. Due to its highly unbalanced political environment, I’ve considerably cut back auto-posting there. To receive all forecast postings, I recommend following me on mastodon.social or bluesky.social
Snow Showers this Afternoon – Some Snow likely Sunday
Posted Thursday 01/16/25 @ 10:06 AM — Today’s forecast of snow showers moving in remains intact. Current radar shows considerable light snow, but most is not reaching the ground at this time—
MRMS Radar this morning. Most of the snow is not reaching the ground due to evaporation in very dry air near the surface. Current forecasts for a coating to a fraction of an inch remain intact for today. The only accumulation currently is west of Harrisburg. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Current snowfall expected today is similar to the graphic posted below. The light accumulation is not expected to begin until 3 PM or later.
As for Sunday, this looks to be “interesting”, as several models have switched places forecasting snow for us. The usual “track” of the storm is “what’s up in the air”.
The latest ECMWF had been most consistent forecasting snow, but now has backed away from that forecast with a more easterly track. The GFS which had not forecasting snow, is now forecasting some snow for us.
The Canadian models now show an inland storm with plenty of precip, not all in the form of snow. Likely an outlier.
The German ICON is somewhere between the ECMWF and GFS, forecasting some snow. (“Some snow” is 0.5-1″.)
Here’s the latest model blend (NBM) cumulative snowfall forecast, likely too high—
This morning’s 19z Snow accumulation forecast for Sunday. Likely too high. (Click on image for a larger view.)
So there’s still too much uncertainty with this forecast. Hopefully by this evening’s update, things get clarified.
Snow Showers Thursday Evening – Some Snow Sunday
Posted Wednesday 01/15/25 @ 4:47 PM — Today’s models continue with a forecast of light snow/flurries for late Thursday afternoon. Accumulations will be minimal (under 1/3 inch) and spotty. Here’s the model blend forecast for snow coverage Thursday evening—
Today’s 19z NBM forecast accumulation for snow. Many areas will see no accumulation, others maybe a coating (Click on image for a larger view.)
As for Sunday, it appears that light snow may be falling during the Eagles game Sunday afternoon. The latest ECMWF and GFS AI models have similar forecasts and support the deterministic ECMWF forecast. The German ICON model has joined in with a similar snow forecast.
The model that is not on-board is our own GFS model, which consistently shows no snow for us.
It’s too far in future (more than 96 hours) to really talk about details, and it’s beyond the range of many models. But the best guess is for light snow to start as early as 1 PM and continue through the afternoon and evening. By the time the Eagles win, there may be as much as 0.5″ of snow on the ground.
Here’s the latest model blend (NBM) total snowfall forecast—
Today’s 19z NBM forecast for Monday morning showing snow cover. This is very preliminary and there are some trends suggesting it may be higher. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Wed 5:13 PM —Commentary — Despite one or two heavy rains in December and several light snowfalls, I don’t think the pattern of dryness and drought we experienced in the Fall has abated.
Total precipitation, rain and snow-water equivalent, continues to be low. The heaviest precipitation continues to move off to our northwest and to our south. Just something to keep in mind. There’s still time for things to change before Spring.
Posted Wednesday 01/15/25 @ 7:53 AM — Time this morning for just a quick update. • The chance of light snow (coating) has increased for late Thursday afternoon and evening with a warm front expected to move across our area.
ECMWF forecast for 7 PM Sunday. Precipiation north of the multicolored lines will fall as snow. White line is 32º isotherm. (Click on image for a larger view.)
• A secondary coastal low, hinted at by various models, for later Sunday may bring as 1-3 inches Sunday mid afternoon and evening. I’m basing this forecast on the latest ECMWF and ECMWF- AIFS models. There may be some impact on the Eagles game, based on current timing.
Initially, falling as snow as early as 3 PM and melting on some surfaces, temperatures drop late afternoon below freezing, allowing some accumulation of 1-3 inches of snow. Further details later this afternoon. Stay tuned.
Update- This Week’s Weather
Posted Tuesday 01/14/25 @ 5:00 PM — There have been no major changes in the forecast for this week from my post earlier today. Snow showers look less likely for late Thursday and rain is more likely for Saturday afternoon and evening.
There hasn’t been much clarification on the potential light snow later Sunday into Sunday night. The ECMWF is still forecasting 2 to possibly 3 inches of snow, while the GFS is not showing any snow. With the exception of the ECMWF, the trend is towards little (or no) snow as supported by the NBM model blend.
Of interest is the AI version of the ECMWF, which has joined the regular ECMWF in forecasting some snow for us late Sunday—
12z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Sunday 7 PM. Some light snow for us. (Click on image for a larger view.)
There’s too much model spread and uncertainty to have confidence in late Sunday’s forecast.
Highlights -This Week’s Weather
Posted Tuesday 01/14/25 @ 7:25 AM — Current highlights for this week’s weather:
Colder temperatures will be with us for today, Tuesday, and Wednesday
A weak clipper disturbance may bring some light snow showers Thursday evening.
Somewhat milder temperatures late Friday.
By Saturday, milder but with some rain likely.
A strong cold front moves through on Sunday.
There remains much uncertainty and model spread regarding low pressure expected to develop late Sunday afternoon. Depending upon the position along the coast, we may see up to 3 inches of snow by Monday morning. We may also see little to no snow.
There remains little agreement with the models regarding the second low expected to form later Sunday. Here’s the latest ECMWF—
Latest ECMWF showing low pressure off the coast but considerable surface activity over PA- 3 inches of snow forecast. Contours- WHITE- 32º surface temp; Critical Thickness for SNOW: RED- 1000m-500mb thickness; YELLOW-1000mb-850mb Thickness; MAGENTA- 850mb-700mb thickness
Here’s the latest AI version of the ECMWF forecast—
The ECMWF-AIFS shows little precipitation near us with the same storm Contours- WHITE- 32º surface temp; Critical Thickness for SNOW: RED- 1000m-500mb thickness; YELLOW-1000mb-850mb Thickness; MAGENTA- 850mb-700mb thickness (Click on image for a larger view.)
The GFS had been forecasting something even stronger than the ECMWF, but the latest run has moved closer to the ECMWF-AIFS,
GFS forecast for early Monday Snow in NJ only. Contours- WHITE- 32º surface temp; Critical Thickness for SNOW: RED- 1000m-500mb thickness; YELLOW-1000mb-850mb Thickness; MAGENTA- 850mb-700mb thickness (Click on image for a larger view.)
Of interest is the ICON which is very similar to the ECMWF—
German ICON model forecast Contours- WHITE- 32º surface temp; Critical Thickness for SNOW: RED- 1000m-500mb thickness; YELLOW-1000mb-850mb Thickness; MAGENTA- 850mb-700mb thickness (Click on image for a larger view.)
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So, there’s a range of forecasts and it’s too soon to call. Stay tuned.
Monday’s Weather
Posted Monday 01/13/25 @ 10:16 AM — Today’s clouds weren’t in any of the forecasts I heard last night and for good reason: the models didn’t forecast this level of cloud cover for today. The clouds are ahead of the first cold front expected to move through this afternoon—
Visible Satellite image this morning with superimposed RAP model pressure, 850 RH, and 3 hour pressure change. I’ve drawn the position of the cold front. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Based on GFS relative humidity, (but not the built-in cloud algorithms) this cloudiness may last through 4-5 PM today. Some scattered sprinkles or snow flurries are possible late this afternoon, mostly in far western areas.
The possible storms mentioned in yesterday’s Week Weather Outlook are more uncertain, with the GFS still predicting the Saturday rain and possible change to snow Sunday, while the ECMWF has most of it sliding off to our south, similar to the most recent light snowfall we had. With the models in such disagreement, there’s too much uncertainty to forecast this period.
The latest GFS -AI model (“GraphCast-GFS”) still shows a snowstorm possible next Tuesday instead of Sunday. With the limited experience I’ve had to date with the AI weather models, I haven’t seen them to be the magic bullet for predicting snow storms here that they’ve been touted to be.
Previously Posted Sun @ 10:13 AM — —Following two near average cold temperature days (Sunday, Monday), a series of cold fronts will bring much colder temperatures back to our area.
Generally dry, cold, windy weather will be with us through later Friday. Mostly sunny, but clouds at times due to upper air disturbances and instability.
There may be some snow showers Tuesday evening with the first front.
NAEFS mode version shows large high pressure and a tight pressure gradient to the upper/surface low in the Canadian North Atlantic on Wednesday. . Cold, Windy conditions expected. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The position of the cold air boundary will spawn a series of low pressure systems that will affect our area late Friday into Saturday and into the following week.
The first surface storm, late Friday through Saturday, will likely bring rain to our area, but may start as a mix in the northwest suburbs and may end as a mix or wet snow late Saturday or early Sunday.
NAEFS forecast for Saturday. Large storm north of the Great Lakes and a second low developing near Georgia will bring mostly rain on our region on Saturday, possibly starting as a mix Friday night in the northwest suburbs. Depending upon how the large H (high) in Canada moves in, and the development and track of the second low near Georgia will determine if we get snow on Sunday. The( ? ) denotes another area of potential storm development for the following Monday and Tuesday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
This week’s cold dry weather will likely be a prelude to more active weather systems after Saturday. Possible snow in the period Sunday through Tuesday.
