Posted Saturday 11/02/24 @ 4:53 PM — The latest artificial intelligence version of the ECMWF, the ECMWF-AIFS, has been totally consistent with its forecast development of a hurricane moving north towards the panhandle of Florida next Thursday.
The operational models and the statistical ensemble models are more divergent with the development and track of this tropical system. In fact, several of the models have any intensification of the hurricane being damped off and absorbed by generalized low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the operational ECMWF forecast for Thursday—
Latest ECMWF model with arrows showing different paths of several other models (Click on image for a larger view.)
Due to the incredible forecast accuracy of the ECMWF-AIFS with Milton and Helene, I’m still leaning towards its forecast for this possible storm—
Latest ECM WF-AIFS forecast for Friday morning(Click on image for a larger view.)
Interestingly, the moisture from this system has a good chance of giving us some rain next weekend. But let’s not celebrate yet.
Where there’s Smoke there’s Fire
Posted Saturday 11/02/24 @ 11:02 AM — The local drought has resulted in forest fires. In my neck of the woods Thursday night, there was a strong smell of smoke.
The HRRR model (along with the upcoming RRFS model under development) has a smoke plume forecast component. Here’s the latest HRRR showing forest fire sources and smoke plume trajectories—
HRRR smoke plume forecast for 4 PM Saturday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Regarding the potential hurricane this coming week, the ECMWF-AIFS is consistent with its forecast track. The regular ECMWF and the GFS are not all that confident or consistent about the track/development.
Here’s the latest ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Thursday—
11-02-24 06z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Thursday 1 PM . Notice a plume of moisture/rain also works its way into our area. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Originally Posted Fri 5:01 PM —Our dry, sunny weather continues for this weekend and likely into much of next week, as high pressure builds in and a strong upper air ridge takes hold next week.
BTW, we had a few drops of rain this morning in some areas. Rainfall was in the 0.01 to 0.02″ range.
MRMS rainfall totals from Friday morning. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The strong upper air ridge will keep rainfall out of our area and despite a cool down this weekend, temperatures will rebound to above average next week.
11-01-24 12z ECMWF forecast for Tuesday. Strong mid and upper level ridge over our area. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Of interest is the continuing strong signal for hurricane development next week in the Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian Global has joined with the German ICON and the ECMWF-AIFS model in predicting this storm. Our GFS is somewhat on board, but it has the storm meandering in the Gulf, and is not likely an accurate forecast. The AI version of the GFS is also showing development with a northwestern track.
There is a reasonable chance that some of the moisture from this storm will affect our weather next weekend.
Here’s the latest ECMWF-AIFS—
11-01-24 12z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for next Thursday. Likely hurricane development. There is a reasonable chance that some of the moisture from this storm will affect our weather next weekend.
Posted Friday 11/01/24 @ 8:17 AM — I set up today’s forecast as a “model test”, with the ECMWF consistently forecasting some light shower activity and the GFS moving through with no showers.
We have light shower activity moving through, as forecast by the ECMWF—
MRMS radar image 7:45 AM. Very light showers, likely not exceeding 0.01 or 0.03 inches. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Today’s front will take time to move through and we’ll continue with mild temperatures for Friday. Cooler, more seasonable air doesn’t filter in until Saturday.
The ECMWF-AIFS model continues to show a hurricane moving towards the Gulf Coast next week. The track has trended a bit further westward. Here’s the latest forecast for next Friday—
11-01-24 06z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for next Friday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The GraphCast GFS AI forecast doesn’t show this, but the operational German ICON model consistently does.
While not a sure thing, the track of this storm may be enough to break our dry weather pattern.
Another Hurricane?
Posted Thursday 10/31/24 @ 4:45 PM — The latest ECMWF-AI has become available. Here’s its forecast for next Friday—
10-31-24 12z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for next Friday morning (Click on image for a larger view.)
Not a good thing for the Gulf Coast, but we may eventually get some rain from this system .
Model Test for Friday
Posted Thursday 10/31/24 @ 2:56 PM — No significant change in the forecast for Friday; the ECMWF continues to spit out some light sprinkles in the mid morning hours while our GFS has us cloudy but dry.
An “interesting” development: The extended range forecasts are beginning to show a strong signal for another hurricane to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and for it to move northward along the western coast of Florida next week. (Updated- possibly westward into Texas) The ECMWF-AIFS, which had been so skillful forecasting Milton, is showing this storm, as is our GEFS, Also of interest is the German ICON model, which has been showing distinct development for a couple of days, somewhat before the AI models—
10-31-24 06z German ICON model forecast for 10 PM Monday (Click on image for a larger view.)
One More Thing
Posted Wednesday 10/30/24 @ 9:00 AM — The near 80° temperatures for Halloween have been well-advertised. One more thing: it looks like it will be quite windy and gusty on Thursday and even more so Friday.
An Interesting Test for the Models
Posted Wednesday 10/30/24 @ 8:29 AM — I think we’d all like to see a little rain on Friday with the upcoming cold front passage. As we all know from recent months, any shower activity to our west has dissipated as it moved eastward through Philadelphia due to persistent blocking high pressure.
Current NOAA model forecasts are showing the same highly diminished rainfall. The same as true from the Canadian models.
Interestingly, the ECMWF and German ICON models have been consistently showing a line of showers moving through Philadelphia late Friday morning—
ECMWF forecast for 11 AM Friday morning (Click on image for a larger view.)
This shower forecast has been supported by the ECMWF-AIFS model but not the GFS AI model (Graphcast GFS). It will be interesting to see how everything plays out. We could use the rain.
Update
Posted Tuesday 10/29/24 @ 9:36 AM — As mentioned in my earlier post today, the conditions conducive to rain here next week have disappeared from the latest extended range and AI models. In fact. it’s hard to imagine a more accentuated upper level ridge over us that impedes development of rain—
ECMWF-AIFS forecast for next Tuesday. Incredible upper level ridge over us! (Click on image for a larger view.)
Hoping for Rain
Posted Tuesday 10/29/24 @ 8:40 AM — Our current very dry period is not going to go away easily. A cold front moving through Friday morning into the afternoon had been promising to bring some showers. The latest GFS and GEFS have backed off considerably on that promise, although the ECMWF is still showing some light shower activity Friday morning. The AI models are showing very light shower activity, but the trend is towards little rain. The model blend (NBM) has trended towards no showers.
On top of that, the unsettled, possibly rainy period that’s been promised for the first week in November is also looking less of a sure bet.
Temperatures still look incredibly warm for Halloween. The latest NBM has moved back towards the low 80s in many areas!
NBM high temps for Thursday
Increasingly Warm
Posted Monday 10/28/24 @ 9:30 AM — Increasingly warm temperatures expected through Thursday. The NBM has backed off on some of the 80º temperatures a bit with much of the region in the upper 70s.
10-28-24 12z NBM high temps Thursday. Most models in the mid to upper 70s. (Click on image for a larger view.)
An increasing signal for some showers with a cold front early Friday (GFS) or afternoon Friday (ECMWF). Maybe 0.10 to 0.20″ rainfall, although still not a sure bet in all areas.
Originally Posted Sun @ 7:14 PM — —An upper air ridge will build through Thursday, bringing us sunny skies and increasingly warm temperatures. Indeed, temperatures may approach or exceed 80º on Thursday, Halloween.
10-27-24 18z NBM high temperatures for Thursday, Oct 31. (Click on image for a larger view.)
High pressure moves off late Thursday, as a cold front brings a chance of some showers here—
NAEFS forecast for Thursday 2AM High pressure still in control. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Any showers we receive after midnightThursday into pre-dawn Friday morning will be light, less than 0.25 inches according to the latest GFS. It should be noted that the ensemble models and the AI models show even less rain here in Philadelphia, perhaps very little, during this cold front passage.
For those hoping for some rain, things still seem somewhat optimistic for some rain here during the time frame Monday Nov 3rd through Thursday Nov 7th. Stay tuned.
