Monthly Archives: November 2024

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #Drought #Hurricane

Sunday Rain Update

Posted Thursday 11/07/24 @ 8:19 AM — We may finally get some rain on Sunday, which has been a somewhat consistent forecast. What has been inconsistent and changeable is the amount rain based on the available moisture all dependent upon the track of Rafael and its moisture outflow. The main trigger for any rain here remains a cold front and a low pressure system in the Midwest.

Complicating this forecast is the likelihood of two tropical systems—

11-07-24 06z German ICON model shows two systems with moisture outflow from Rafael (1) pulled northeastward towards us. Forecast is for Sunday at 4 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)

The models still lack agreement about Rafael but are trending towards yesterday’s GFS with a loop and eastward track that never makes landfall on the Gulf coast. As has been the case all week, a reasonable rainfall here is dependent on moisture at least indirectly from Rafael.

Many models are down to forecasting only 0.20″ of rain. The ICON model shows as much as 0.60″ due to more moisture from Rafael.

This will not be a drought buster by any stretch.

Forecast Update

Posted Wednesday 11/06/24 @ 4:04 PM —Hurricane Rafael continues to confound the forecast models. The AI version of the ECMWF, which did so well with Milton and Helene, also seems to be having issues forecasting the movement of this storm although it did quite well predicting its formation and movement to this point.

Most most models have the storm lingering off the Gulf coast or being sheared off and absorbed in the general flow. Even the German ICON has joined this forecast. An exception is the deterministic ECMWF which has it moving southwestward towards Mexico and this path is supported by the NOAA hurricane model, the HAFS-B—

11-06-24 12z HAFS-B Hurricane Model forecast Sunday morning. (Click on image for a larger view.)

The current GFS is similar to the latest ECMWF-AIFS and continues to be the forecast I’m leaning towards. It has the storm remaining off the Gulf coast. Here’s its forecast for Sunday evening, showing rain in our area, mostly from an approaching frontal system with some added moisture from the hurricane outflow—

11-06-24 12z GFS forecast for Sunday evening (Click on image for a larger view.)

Here’s the latest ECMWF-AIFS forecast—

11-06-24 12z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Sunday evening. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Those models which have greater assimilation of the hurricane’s moisture (Canadian, German ICON) show rainfall for our area as much as 0.75 inches by Monday morning. The GFS shows about 0.50″ and the ECMWF only shows less than 0.20″ of rainfall here later Sunday.

Some Rain Late Sunday- Hurricane Stagnates?

Posted Wednesday 11/06/24 @ 9:00 AM — There continues to be an uncertain forecast for Hurricane Rafael’s track and for the amount (if any) of moisture it will add to a frontal type rainfall for us late Sunday.

The latest AI model of the ECMWF still shows the hurricane (or tropical storm) making landfall later Sunday night adding to rainfall here—

In contrast, the latest ECMWF deterministic model shows the hurricane moving westward into Mexico!

11-06-24 00z ECMWF forecast for Sunday night Less rainfall here. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Closer to the AI mode is the latest GFS—

11-06-24 06z GFS forecast for 6 PM Sunday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Any northern landfall will increase available moisture for much needed rain here in Philadelphia. Quite an uncertain forecast. Stay tuned.

Forecast Update

Posted Tuesday 11/05/24 @ 9:02 PM — More of this afternoon’s models (the 18z runs) have moved away from the forecasts of the AI models and have joined the forecast trends first set by the ECMWF and German ICON models— Basically the models are showing Rafael to stagnate in the Gulf of Mexico and not make landfall. The NOAA hurricane model, the HAFS-B, has joined this forecast as well—

11-05-24 18z HAFS-B now keeps the storm in the Gulf, at least through Sunday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

This mean less moisture brought up for less rainfall here and any rain here my shift into later Sunday or Monday. Stay tuned.

Any Chance for Rain Here?

Posted Tuesday 11/05/24 @ 9:34 AM — What had looked to be almost a slam-dunk for rain here on Sunday is now looking a bit more uncertain. Much of that forecast depended upon the remnants of Rafael to move up over our area, merging with a closed low to our west.

BTW, we may has some showers here Thursday with the passage of a cold front, but much of the rainfall is expected to falll just to our south.

The forecast track and timing of Rafael remains uncertain, but the trend is for a later landfall as the storm meanders a bit in the Gulf. According to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Model (HAFS-B), NOAA’s newest hurricane model—

11-05-24 06z HAFS-B model forecast for Saturday at 7 PM (Click on image for a larger view.)

The AI version of the ECMWF, the ECMWF-AIFS shows a similar landfall but is almost 14 hours later. Rain from this system here would be Monday, not Sunday.

11-05-24 06z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for 7 AM Sunday. Notice the curvature of the 500 mb heights (blue contours) over our area, indicating an upper ridge, which may cut down on our rainfall. (Click on image for a larger view.)

The operational ECMWF and the German ICON still keep the storm stuck in the Gulf, further complicating the forecast. Stay tuned.

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Rafael Update

Posted Monday 11/04/24 @ 4:09 PM — Large forecast differences exist for the track, intensification and speed of what has been named Tropical Storm Rafael, soon to be Hurricane Rafael, for the time period after Thursday.

The ECMWF-AIFS model is now consistent forecasting landfall near New Orleans with a rapid decrease in intensification due to expected vertical shear. It’s track is supported by the latest GFS and the HAFS-B model, but with different timing. Here are two of the models—

11-04-24 12z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for 7 PM Saturday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
11-04-24 12z GFS forecast for 7 AM Saturday. The GFS is faster with landfall and a bit further east. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Adding to the uncertainty is the latest ECMWF which keeps the hurricane in the western Gulf of Mexico, not really making landfall before diminishing in intensity. The German ICON model has a similar track—

11-04-24 12z ECMWF forecast for SUNDAY (Click on image for a larger view.)

Too early to tell which way this storm will move, but my money is currently on the ECMWF-AIFS /GFS/ HAFS-B with landfall near New Orleans. This would bring us rain sometime on Sunday.

Regarding our Dry Weather

Regarding our dry weather, back in July, I saw this drought pattern possibly emerging and I advanced some theories about it then. At least in Philadelphia, the tell-tale sign seems to be storms that repeatedly fall apart just to our west.

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Update

Posted Monday 11/04/24 @ 7:05 AM — Considerable forecast differences and uncertainties remain with the developing tropical system (and likely hurricane) in the Gulf of Mexico. This system is likely to become a hurricane by Wednesday or Thursday.

Some consistency exists between models until Thursday; then the tracks and intensity greatly diverge.

I’ve drawn the forecast tracks superimposed on the ECMWF-AIFS model forecast for Thursday—

11-04-24 06z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Thursday. Drawn is the ECMWF (yellow) track and the GFS track (green) (Click on image for a larger view.)

Here’s the main takeaways—

  • The ECMWF-AIFS has adopted the westward track of the operational models. It has the storm dissipating just as it makes landfall.
  • The operational ECMWF maintains a westward track into Mexico
  • The operational GFS maintains the strongest storm with a direct track and landfall similar to the ECMWF-AIFS. The GFS forecasts a stronger storm that maintains tropical characteristics at landfall.
  • Not drawn is the Canadian Global with a similar track to the GFS, but the storm falls apart near landfall.
  • Not drawn on the map, the German ICON is similar to the ECMWF with a westward track into Mexico.

I’m leaning towards a GFS/ECMWF-AIFS composite with landfall near Louisiana/ Mississippi around Saturday and maintaining some strength.

Most (but not all models) are still forecasting the moisture to give us a 1/2″ rainfall on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Update

Posted Sunday 11/03/24 @ 9:22 PM — For the past two days, most models have had the expected tropical system/hurricane veer towards the west. The exception has been the AI model of the ECMWF (ECMWF-AIFS)

The most recent ECMWF-AIFS has captured much of what the operational models (GFS, ICON, ECMWF, Canadian Global GEM) have been forecasting; a pause on Thursday and a jog to the west. It still shows it veering northward again but with a more westward landfall—

11-03-24 18z ECMWF-AIFS Forecast for Thursday and it’s path through Saturday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

It should be mentioned that many models have this system shearing off and weakening considerably and even dying before making landfall. This ECMWF-AIFS does not weaken the storm considerably.

The system is of interest to us since its remnant moisture is still forecast to (possibly) bring us some rain next Sunday.

You may be wondering about our (NOAA) GraphCast-GFS AI model. Unfortunately, NOAA posts this model’s data with a 14 hour processing delay and so far, it hasn’t shown itself to be very useful.

Originally Posted Sun @ 10:15 AM — —The big weather stories this week will first be an anomalous sharp upper air ridge over the eastern US and the development of at least one, possibly two, hurricanes to affect the Gulf states sometime late Thursday into Friday. The moisture plume and eventual path from the hurricane remnant may finally bring us some rainfall next weekend

Combined 18z NAEFS (Average version) forecast with Bias-Corrected GEFS model 6 hour precip for Wednesday. Strong upper ridge over us. Tropical disturbance name 97ll likely to become a hurricane. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Expect very warm temperatures here from late Tuesday into Thursday due to the upper ridge.

A likely hurricane, currently forecast to be weak, will move either across the Florida Panhandle area or closer to New Orleans. The operational models have consistently had a western track. The ECMWF-AIFS, which did so well forecasting Milton and Helene, has an eastern track into the Florida Panhandle.

11-03-24 06z GFS model forecast has the storm closer to Louisiana. The GFS is predicting a second tropical system (2). (Click on image for a larger view.)

The AI model, the ECMWF-AIFS, was the first to predict this system and has been totally consistent with its track. Here’s the latest—

11-03-24 06z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Friday 1 AM (Click on image for a larger view.)

It appears possible that some of the moisture from this system will bring us some rain next weekend. Stay tuned.

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #Drought #hurricane

Potential Hurricane Update

Posted Saturday 11/02/24 @ 4:53 PM — The latest artificial intelligence version of the ECMWF, the ECMWF-AIFS, has been totally consistent with its forecast development of a hurricane moving north towards the panhandle of Florida next Thursday.

The operational models and the statistical ensemble models are more divergent with the development and track of this tropical system. In fact, several of the models have any intensification of the hurricane being damped off and absorbed by generalized low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the operational ECMWF forecast for Thursday—

Latest ECMWF model with arrows showing different paths of several other models (Click on image for a larger view.)

Due to the incredible forecast accuracy of the ECMWF-AIFS with Milton and Helene, I’m still leaning towards its forecast for this possible storm—

Latest ECM WF-AIFS forecast for Friday morning(Click on image for a larger view.)

Interestingly, the moisture from this system has a good chance of giving us some rain next weekend. But let’s not celebrate yet.

Where there’s Smoke there’s Fire

Posted Saturday 11/02/24 @ 11:02 AM — The local drought has resulted in forest fires. In my neck of the woods Thursday night, there was a strong smell of smoke.

The HRRR model (along with the upcoming RRFS model under development) has a smoke plume forecast component. Here’s the latest HRRR showing forest fire sources and smoke plume trajectories—

HRRR smoke plume forecast for 4 PM Saturday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Regarding the potential hurricane this coming week, the ECMWF-AIFS is consistent with its forecast track. The regular ECMWF and the GFS are not all that confident or consistent about the track/development.

Here’s the latest ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Thursday—

11-02-24 06z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Thursday 1 PM . Notice a plume of moisture/rain also works its way into our area. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Originally Posted Fri 5:01 PM —Our dry, sunny weather continues for this weekend and likely into much of next week, as high pressure builds in and a strong upper air ridge takes hold next week.

BTW, we had a few drops of rain this morning in some areas. Rainfall was in the 0.01 to 0.02″ range.

MRMS rainfall totals from Friday morning. (Click on image for a larger view.)

The strong upper air ridge will keep rainfall out of our area and despite a cool down this weekend, temperatures will rebound to above average next week.

11-01-24 12z ECMWF forecast for Tuesday. Strong mid and upper level ridge over our area. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Of interest is the continuing strong signal for hurricane development next week in the Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian Global has joined with the German ICON and the ECMWF-AIFS model in predicting this storm. Our GFS is somewhat on board, but it has the storm meandering in the Gulf, and is not likely an accurate forecast. The AI version of the GFS is also showing development with a northwestern track.

There is a reasonable chance that some of the moisture from this storm will affect our weather next weekend.

Here’s the latest ECMWF-AIFS—

11-01-24 12z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for next Thursday. Likely hurricane development. There is a reasonable chance that some of the moisture from this storm will affect our weather next weekend.