#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx
Huge Forecast Change?
Here’s the latest GFS 30 hour forecast—
Posted Tuesday 09/17/24 @ 4:56 PM — It’s been clear that this week’s weather would be low confidence/high uncertainty. The latest ECMWF has just come in and it has a huge change in the forecast. I wanted to get this posted; many other models have not yet become available and I’d like to compare it with the latest GFS, which won’t be available until around 6 PM.
The latest ECMWF completely changes its forecast. The coastal low, expected to be off the coast is now forecast to be right on the coast. Rainfall totals over 3 inches are now forecast by Thursday!
I’ll be reviewing other models and will update this forecast early this evening.
This Storm will Bypass our Area
Posted Tuesday 09/17/24 @ 9:23 AM — As has been the trend over several days, the main area of rainfall from the remnants of the tropical system will bypass the Philadelphia area, and a second low pressure system develops somewhere off of the NJ coastline.
The reason for the storm missing us— high pressure is expected to nose down in western PA and block its movement towards us.
The latest GFS has almost no rain in Philadelphia through Thursday, while the ECMWF and several other models show as little as 0.10 to 0.20″ .
The latest forecast models not only block the movement of the storm towards us, but they also block the exit of the storm from the western Atlantic. As a result, the storm is forecast to rotate and meander around itself off of the NJ Coast for several days.
The caption on the graphic below explains the situation—
With a meandering system rotating around itself, uncertainty with this forecast is high regarding the location of the low.
The ECMWF shows high uncertainty in the position—
With uncertainty in the position of the low, any forecast through Friday has lower than usual confidence.
Posted Monday 09/16/24 @ 6:19 PM — The forecast track for this storm has changed and a secondary low is forecast to develop somewhere off the coast. The latest GFS reverts back to a minimal rain event for our area—
The latest ECMWF is somewhat similar. Some of the higher resolution models have about 0.40 to” 0.70″ of rain (RGEM, NAM-NEST, HREF)
The good old NAM still is forecasting heavy rain here, likely not correct—
Still an uncertain forecast with lack of consistency. Stay tuned.
Posted Monday 09/16/24 @ 8:36 AM — The storm track of Tropical Cyclone 8 (not yet named a tropical storm) has changed and slowed somewhat from yesterday, according the the National Hurricane Center. As a result, the forecast for our area remains uncertain.
The “ensemble” models statistically capture uncertainty as an increase in standard deviation of their model members. The latest ECMWF ensemble shows high uncertainty in the position and track of the expected extra-tropical low on Wednesday.
While several models still maintain our area in a precipitation ‘hole’, the latest GFS has shifted some of the heavy rainfall back into our area—
Further changes are expected. Stay tuned!
Posted Sunday 09/15/24 @ 7:17 PM —The latest GFS has become available and the trend is for much less rainfall here. In fact, for much of our area, the GFS has almost no rainfall this week.
I heard the 6 PM forecast on TV, however, I don’t see “flooding rains” in the immediate Philadelphia area. (The TV weather people are big ECMWF model fans, which is still predicting somewhat heavy rainfall here.)
When it comes to tropical systems, forecasts often change. Stay tuned.
Originally Posted Sun 5:42 PM —It’s been many weeks since any substantial rain has fallen here. The tropical system off the North Carolina coast (Tropical Cyclone Eight) had been expected to bring us much needed heavy rainfall, however, recent trends, as discussed in this past Weekend Weather, show the rainfall forecast in the immediate Philadelphia area to fall short of what’s needed.
Here’s the current water vapor image—
There remains a range of rainfall totals, with each model having a somewhat different take on things.
The latest model blend (NBM) captures the trend, with the heaviest precipitation bypassing the immediate Philadelphia area—
The time frame of the storm is outside of the higher resolution model ranges at this time (60-84 hours). Changes in the forecast are still likely.