Updated Mon 01:39 PM — The storms developed around 1 PM, but not where predicted by the models.  Also, the storm movement is different than predicted as well (or there’s something wrong with my data.)  We’re getting some small size hail around here.

Live Radar at 12:56PM- Starting Thunderstorm development.  (Click on image for a larger view.)

Radar image courtesy of

Considerable development 30 minutes later—

Live Radar Capture 1:27 PM  (Click on image for a larger view.)

Radar image courtesy of

From earlier this morning…

The models from last night and this morning show thunderstorms developing over central NJ near Bucks County about 1-3 PM today and moving from northeast to southwest!   Some of these thunderstorms will have very heavy rain!

HRRR storm motion direction at 3 PM

Most areas near Philadelphia  will have showers and thunderstorms, but some areas which have been dry over the past few weeks may again miss some of the heaviest rains.

(There’s a negative feedback loop where there are existing dry conditions. When soil moisture is low, it negatively affects the development of thunderstorms.  Dry begets dry!)

Storms will be with us through 7 to 8 PM