Monthly Archives: July 2019

Philadelphia Weather Outlook

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

A cold front will gradually move through later today (Thursday) and tonight.  It may be slow to move out Friday morning areas east of the city.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, indeed, they have already started around noon in some areas in the city.

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]What’s interesting is that most (but not all) of last night’s models didn’t have showers moving through early and had delayed them until late afternoon or evening today.

Strangely, last night’s RAP model (RAPid Refresh) was the only model to show the early showers and thunderstorms we had today and this afternoon. Even last night’s HIREF was slow to move the showers in today.[/su_note]

High pressure will build in for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  Sunny skies and somewhat above average temperatures expected.  Daytime highs about 90 in the city.

High Temperature forecast Saturday and Sunday (GFS Model) (about 3PM each day)

The track of Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Barry is still uncertain.  It’s also unclear where all that tropical moisture will end up.

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

SUNDAY FORECAST UPDATE

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]10:30 AM Sun Update: Both versions of today’s WRF show light, widely scattered showers Sunday mid to late afternoon. Largest coverage is south and west of the city. [/su_note]

Last night’s models were way off on the scattered showers and thunderstorms that developed late morning in the western suburbs and moved into Philadelphia. They were better with the second wave of storms that developed dynamically in place around 6pm and moved east. The third wave of storms about 8 pm were in a line that did lose, as predicted, a lot of its punch as it approached the city. Still, the timing was off.

This morning’s models didn’t do much better, although the HIREF did the best. Unfortunately, the HIREF didn’t become available until 11:38 am, long after I was out biking and dodging raindrops.

So what about Sunday?

The front is slowly moving through tonight and is expected to still be just south of the city on Sunday.  Considerable cloudiness for the morning and much of the afternoon,

One version of tonight’s WRF just available has clearing mid afternoon, one version has scattered light showers late afternoon from the city on south.   High 84-86 with lower humidity.