I received an email from a follower of this blog asking for my thoughts regarding the upcoming winter. Here’s what I replied:
Thanks for the confidence you expressed in my forecasts. Winter weather seasonal forecasts are more about climate than weather. Even the National Center for Climate Prediction doesn’t do too well with these very long range forecasts.
That said, I usually take a stab at the Winter Weather Seasonal Forecast towards the end of November. By that time, any pattern that may become established will have revealed itself.
But if you want an early sense of things, the nadir in the sunspot cycle suggests plenty of cold air. The current dips in the jet stream suggest a stormy winter. And an expected appearance of El Niño in the Pacific suggests plenty of moisture.
So expect a cold winter with plenty of storms and plenty of snow. That’s my best bet right now. But things could change if the jet stream dips change over to the western side of the US.
[su_box title=”Forecast Update Thursday AM” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]The latest models show a change in the forecast. The coastal low gives us rain for Saturday, but departs much more quickly now. Sunday will be windy and chillly but not rainy. The second low moves in on Monday.[/su_box]
The latest models show a coastal low bringing us rain on Saturday as an upper low to the west along with another low in the Midwest causes the coastal low to linger over our area into early Sunday. The phasing that was considered a possibility to create a superstorm is no longer being depicted.
So, not the best weekend, weather-wise, as rain is likely for Saturday and early Sunday morning. Much of Sunday will be unsettled, cloudy and windy.
Much uncertainty about the intensity and timing of a coastal storm expected to develop and move up the coast, affecting our area sometime early Saturday into Sunday. Several models have backed away from a super storm that had been forecast by the European Model (ECMWF) and Canadian (CMC) models and to some extent the GFS.
The latest model forecasts suggest that the northern stream and southern stream low pressure systems won’t phase because the northern stream disturbance will arrive too late. However, the ECMWF still has a considerable storm forming and affecting us Saturday into Sunday.
The latest GFS moves the low pressure through faster and keeps the two storms separate. In fact the lack of phasing with the GFS keeps the southern stream coastal storm moving fast and robbing it of some punch.
It’s still way too early to know which way things will go, but the trend is towards a rainy but otherwise unremarkable Saturday.
I’ve been following this for several days and I’ll update if things change.
