Monthly Archives: October 2018

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST- EARLY EDITION

A weak front will move through Philadelphia in the early morning hours Saturday, accompanied by some showers, mostly before daybreak.

I’m going to try something for this forecast version- it will be based on the newer statistical models– the new National Blend of Models (NBM) and the new Ensemble Kernel Density Model Output Statistics.  (EKDMOS).  We’ll see how this goes.   🙂

Saturday will start cloudy, but skies will begin to clear during the mid morning hours and partly sunny skies is expected for much of the day.   High will be between 61 (NBM) or 66 (EKDMOS) .  It will be windy!

Clouds move in later Saturday afternoon as a strong  secondary cold front moves through.  More showers possible during Saturday night.

Sunday will be mostly sunny with some clouds, chilly and  windy with a high of 49(NBM) to 52 (EKDMOS).

(I’ve been incorporating the experimental NBM and EKDMOS for these forecasts over the past year.  The EKDMOS is pretty good with forecasting high temperatures.  The NBM 3.1 , which now includes the European Models in the blend, was promoted from experimental to operational on Oct 3rd.   Let’s see how it does this weekend.)

Look for an update tonight.

[su_box title=”Forecast Update Friday 6 PM” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]The forecast remains on track. Saturday, after pre-dawn showers, becomes mostly sunny with some periods of clouds. Windy. High 63. Some sprinkles Saturday night as a secondary cold front moves through. Sunday is mostly sunny, windy and chilly. High 50. [/su_box]

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]This weekend’s forecast postmortem: The NBM did pretty good with the high temperatures, winds and precipitation (including Sunday’s brief shower that occurred about 8 AM instead of the predicted 7 AM.) BUT, it did very poorly with the cloudiness/sky cover prediction on both days. It was much cloudier than the NBM forecast.  I’ve noticed this in past months.  So I’ll have to go back to the GFS humidity fields for cloud cover in future forecasts.    [/su_note]

 

Philadelphia Weather Outlook

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

After such a wet, warm and humid September, the change in seasons has not surprisingly brought a change in the overall weather pattern.

The current medium range models show several jet stream dips, allowing colder air to enter into the PHL area.  The dips also create a stage for low pressure development.

Historical average temperatures this week are 43 low and 61 for the high. Our temperatures will depart from these averages over the next several days.

Dip in the jet stream
GFS Saturday Night Forecast

Currently, a dip in the jet stream will bring relatively cold temperatures for Thursday and Friday.  A brief warmup on Saturday will precede another front moving through on Saturday.

The approaching front may give us some showers Saturday and will result in colder weather for Sunday and Monday. Lows may be near freezing Sunday night.

As someone who looks at the weather maps each day as my daily crossword puzzle, I can say that the weather this year has been a wild ride.  The rest of October currently looks to be equally interesting with the possibility of a large coastal storm the end of next week.  Stay tuned.