[su_box title=”Forecast Update Thursday AM” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]The latest models show a change in the forecast. The coastal low gives us rain for Saturday, but departs much more quickly now. Sunday will be windy and chillly but not rainy. The second low moves in on Monday.[/su_box]
The latest models show a coastal low bringing us rain on Saturday as an upper low to the west along with another low in the Midwest causes the coastal low to linger over our area into early Sunday. The phasing that was considered a possibility to create a superstorm is no longer being depicted.
So, not the best weekend, weather-wise, as rain is likely for Saturday and early Sunday morning. Much of Sunday will be unsettled, cloudy and windy.
Much uncertainty about the intensity and timing of a coastal storm expected to develop and move up the coast, affecting our area sometime early Saturday into Sunday. Several models have backed away from a super storm that had been forecast by the European Model (ECMWF) and Canadian (CMC) models and to some extent the GFS.
The latest model forecasts suggest that the northern stream and southern stream low pressure systems won’t phase because the northern stream disturbance will arrive too late. However, the ECMWF still has a considerable storm forming and affecting us Saturday into Sunday.
The latest GFS moves the low pressure through faster and keeps the two storms separate. In fact the lack of phasing with the GFS keeps the southern stream coastal storm moving fast and robbing it of some punch.
It’s still way too early to know which way things will go, but the trend is towards a rainy but otherwise unremarkable Saturday.
I’ve been following this for several days and I’ll update if things change.
