Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

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Sunday Forecast Update

Update Sat 06/03 @ 8:45 PM — Little change in Sunday’s forecast. High temp 74.0º with a higher than usual standard deviation of 2.8º

The blocked pattern we’re in remains little changed through the end of the week. There’s some evidence that the cool cyclonic flow we’re in will breakdown sometime next weekend and that the block may shift or lose amplitude by the middle of the month.

NAEFS upper air (jet stream level 250 mb) wind flow for Tuesday shows several impulses expected to circulate around upper low over New England. These may spawn surface low pressure with an increased chance of some light shower activity on Tuesday

There’s also some suggestion that another upper low may move in to replace this one. We’ll have to wait to see.

How much rain did we get?

Update Sat 06/03 @ 10:42 AM —So how much rain did we get Friday evening? Here’s the MRMS radar- rain gauge estimate —

MRMS estimate of rainfall over the Philadelphia area Friday evening. Not much in most areas with a few lucky exceptions. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Update Sat 6/03 8:30 AM — More sun currently than forecast by most models (with the exception being the Canadian HRDPS). With most models, including the NBM, still showing the development of instability clouds, I’m going to stick with the forecast of cloudiness developing late morning into mid-afternoon, but it’s a low confidence forecast.

Previously Posted Fri 5:49 PM —

The blocking pattern will continue into this weekend as a well-entrenched Omega block (Ω) gets reinforced with a deepening cyclonic dip over our area that is pushing southwestward. A backdoor cold front is moving through this evening propelled by the upper level cyclonic dip—

Omega Block (white jet flow arrows) with sharpening upper air trough pushing southwestward (red arrow) (Click on image for a larger view.)

Saturday

An upper cyclonic flow will cause instability cloudiness. Minor chance of a sprinkle in the morning. A considerable amount of cloudiness morning into mid afternoon. More sunshine by late afternoon. Breezy and cool.

High temperature 74.1º sd 2.0º ( NBM model— location Blue Bell, PA)

Sunday

Sunny and cool. Breezy.

High temperature 75.3º sd 2.4º ( NBM model— location Blue Bell, PA)