The Tropical Prediction Center has moved the expected track of hurricane Joaquin westward and has delayed the arrival of the storm (then expected to be a tropical storm) until Monday in our area.
The majority of the experimental tropical models, though, keep the track even more westward and southward, into the Carolinas and then Kentucky. Stay tuned.
As I said on Friday about today’s (Sunday) forecast:
“Unfortunately, the models do poorly with the placement of precipitation around closed lows, so we could have partly sunny skies or even showers. Depending on the amount of sun, it could be 72-77 as a high temperature.”
I didn’t try to update this view yesterday, since nothing changed.
So looks like we are having all of the above today- sun, clouds and the radar is even showing some showers developing to our south and moving northward.
Don’t let the early sunshine fool you today. Rain is on the way.
Trying to pin down the onset of rain in PHL —. The NAM and the NAM-based HRRR has scattered shower activity as early as noon with more organized rain by 2PM and heavy rain by about 5 PM. The GFS is a bit slower with the rain, starting about 2-3 PM and heavy about 5-6 PM.