#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx
Saturday- Changed Forecast
Posted Friday 12/08 @ 4:46 PM — I’m preparing the Weekend Weather Forecast, but I wanted to post a big change in the forecast for Saturday ASAP. The warm front is now expected to bring some showers Saturday morning with clearing after 1-2 PM. That’s a significant change than what had previously been the model guidance for just clouds and fog.
Details coming in my Weekend Weather Forecast
Friday Weekend Update
Posted Friday 12/08 @ 9:10 AM — A quick update. A few changes in the forecast outlined in my Weekend Preview below—
There will be heavy fog very early Saturday morning and especially Saturday night.
Rain ahead of the cold front on Sunday will begin with spotty showers in the morning. Rain and winds pick up after 2 PM (earlier far western suburbs). Rain becomes quite heavy Sunday evening and overnight with high winds expected.
Check back for my Weekend Weather Forecast later this afternoon or early evening.
Friday and Weekend Preview
A warm front will try to move through tonight (Thursday night) and Friday will start cloudy. Clouds should break for some sunshine through high clouds by late morning or early afternoon. Highs should reach 48-49º Friday afternoon.
A second warm front will slowly move through on Saturday. Saturday will be milder with highs 50º-53º but will become considerably cloudy in the afternoon.
The second warm front will be north of us Sunday and highs will reach the mid 60s!
A strong cold front approaches Sunday night. Heavy rain, high winds (45-50 mph) Sunday night. Thunderstorms possible.
Light Snow Update
Posted Wed 12/06 @ 11:11 PM — Tonight’s models are suggesting that the light, accumulating snow will stay north of Doylestown. Only flurries closer to the city.
Light Snow Thursday Morning
Posted Wednesday 12/06 @ 5:17 PM — Today’s models are in fairly good agreement that a clipper type disturbance will move down in the jet flow Thursday morning, giving us some light snow, possibly a coating, dusting or up to 0.5 inches in the far northwestern suburbs—
Here’s the expected “snowfall totals” (I’m using quotes for a reason) —
These totals are in the range of model noise and anything less than 0.5 inches should be viewed somewhat skeptically. That said, I think these forecast amounts are possible, considering the consistency of the several models.
Temperatures are heading upwards and anything that sticks will likely melt by the end of the day.
Wednesday Forecast Update
Posted Wednesday 12/06 @ 10:38 AM — The snow flurry forecast for Wednesday has been on-track and additional snow flurries (non-accumulating) are likely early this afternoon.
The greatest chance for snow flurries today is where POPs (Probability of Precipitation) are highest this afternoon—
Changing Focus to Thursday
Posted Tuesday 12/05 @ 7:55 PM — So there’s a slight chance of some flurries Wednesday. Of greater interest is a disturbance that moves down from the northwest while cold air is in place Thursday morning, at the same time the upper half of the atmosphere is warming. Some additional snow showers are seeming more likely, possibly with a dusting type accumulation in far northern areas.
This clipper type disturbance is looking more pronounced in today’s models, than it had previously. I’ll keep an eye on it.
Snow Flurries Wednesday
Posted Tuesday 12/05 @ 5:03 PM — A system to our south combined with disturbances rotating around an upper trough will result in some light precipitation Wednesday, likely snow flurries or snow flurries mixed with light rain showers. No accumulation for most of the area; a dusting possible north of Doylestown on grassy surfaces.
The latest NBM shows extremely light flurries possible during Wednesday afternoon—
The latest HRDPS shows an area of light precipitation moving through about 1 PM. The 36.5º contour is highlighted; it’s the temperature where there’s a 50% chance of either rain or snow (an overly-simplistic, back of the envelope methodology).
Additional snow showers possible on Thursday as warmer air returns aloft!
Posted Monday 12/04 @ 5:42 PM —A cold front moved through and we have had some colder temperatures today. These slightly below seasonable temperatures will be with us through Thursday. (Average high is about 47º Blue Bell)
Despite a weak disturbance moving near us early Wednesday morning, no snow or even flurries are expected here.
A warm up is expected Friday through Sunday, but it will be accompanied by rain late Saturday into Sunday.
Previously Posted Sun 9:21 PM —
A changeable week, weather-wise, as an upper cold trough moves in by Wednesday, then replaced by an upper (warmer) ridge into the weekend.
For Monday, we’ll have considerable mid level cloudiness develop that will be with us for most of the day. Highs 47º-49º which is actually near our seasonal average temperature.
Our coldest day will be Wednesday.
Milder air by Friday and especially Saturday. Rain expected on Sunday.