Philly Winter Weather Update

This morning’s NAM has backed off from the heavy freezing rain this evening and has the precipitation ending about midnight.   Both the NAM and the GFS have total QPF values about 0.35 inches water, with the GFS correctly predicting this morning’s earlier onset.

Both models (for PHL) keep surface temperatures at freezing, with the upper atmosphere warming by late afternoon.

So a transition from snow to sleet/freezing rain still looks correct,  with greater snow totals  north and west of Philadelphia.

Accumulations will be difficult to predict, still 1-3 inches likely, but the concern is the amount of icing will we get.  The unknown  will be the actual rise in surface temperatures, both later today and especially tomorrow morning.  The NAM keeps us at freezing, the GFS brings us just above freezing.

I would bet on the NAM here.